is $PUMP overvalued at $4b fdv? to get a better idea, it helps to have a look at projects with >$1b fdv. generally, the projects with highest fdv are: 1. L1s 2. Stablecoins 3. CEXs Although it's not excluded that pump launches its own L1 at some point, this hasn't been announced and the market is probably not pricing that rn. pumpdotfun sits somewhere in the dex/launchpad/memecoin/app categories. The most comparable projects with >$1b fdv would be: 1/ $uni $8.5b 2/ $shib $8b 3/ $m $7b (MemeCore) 4/ $pepe $5b 5/ $jup $3b 6/ $pengu $2b 7/ $bonk $2b 8/ $ray $1.5b 9/ $fartcoin $1.2b 10/ $cake $1.1b pump fdv should be somewhere between min $2b (Bonk) and max $8b (Shib/Uniswap) Now pump has been consistently among top 5 revenue generating apps in the last months and should be a good long-term hold. the main question is about short-term selling pressure from team and early investors. as with all listings, pump should have a >30% pullback at some point in the first 7 days after tge. imo below $3b fdv would be a good buy and above $5.5b wouldn't be a great rr. so my plan after tge is: 1/ if goes down : start scaling below $4b fdv with heavier size below $3b 2/ if goes up: wait for a >30% pullback, provided fdv below <$5b after pullback.
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