1/3 BMNR true mNAV revealed 🍿 I spent a few hours on this so you don't have to. TLDR: As of 11/7 4pm ET mNAV was 1.175 and BMNR continues to acquire $300mm+ ETH per week. Bitmine purposely doesn't disclose shares outstanding to obfuscate their premium/discount to NAV. I actually think this is smart on their part as retail doesn't care about the actual mNAV whereas more sophisticated investors, who could potentially short the stock, do care. The problem: Bitmine doesn't disclose shares outstanding and all sites: yahoo, cnbc, bloomberg, etc. currently display an estimate only. However, that estimate is too low.

2/3 Solution: I started with the last updated true NAV of 39.84 from their 8/25 filing. Every week on Sunday, BMNR gives an updated 8-K showing their holdings of ETH, BTC, ORBS, and cash. Assumptions: I assume BMNR sells shares during normal US market hours and subsequently buys ETH. For each week, I use the BMNR vwap px for where shares are sold, and I use the average ETH price during that week (this is just an estimate, it would be better to use coinbase vwap price during those market hours but this is a lot of work). I adjust for cash, btc, and orbs holdings, and assume that for the amount of ETH bought, they will sell an equivalent market value of BMNR shares. Here's where it gets a little tricky. I use the previous NAV and adjust it by the average ETH price for that week. Then I add to this shocked NAV, the realized premium on shares sold (total shares sold/previous total shares*estimate mNAV where estimated mNAV is BMNR vwap px/average ETH px shocked NAV). I do this for every 8k manually as gathering all this data is not easy to automate. I used Bloomberg for BMNR vwap price and average ETH price during those weekdays that BMNR is trading (exclude holidays). Since 11/9 is the last updated 8k, I can used the BMNR closing price on 11/7 and ETH price at 4pm ET to come up with an mNAV of ~1.175. I believe this is the most accurate mNAV made public.

3/3 Cheers if you made it this far. Another noteworthy takeaway is that ETH acquired has slowed down to $300-400mm per week in the last few weeks as ETH price has come down. Prior to that, BMNR was averaging closer to $800mm per week in ETH purchases. So, as price has come down, they have purchased less ETH. I think this is more a function of volume/liquidity of BMNR stock. As ETH price was high, retail volume was high and BMNR was able to sell more shares to purchase ETH. Retail bought the top and therefore, BMNR also bought the top. mNAV is on the lower end, but on a positive note, it is still well above 1 and BMNR continues to sell shares and purchase ETH. BMNR infinite money glitch still working. Meanwhile, SBET mNAV ~0.80 is a significant discount. This is not financial advice. I am selling BMNR and buying SBET.

Update: BMNR mNAV as if the close 11/14 was 1.105. Current mNAV as of this post is 1.05.

Update: BMNR mNAV as if the close 11/14 was 1.105. Current mNAV as of this post is 1.05.

Update: right now I see BMNR mNAV ~0.94. SBET mNAV ~0.78. My trade idea of selling BMNR at 1.175 mNAV and buying SBET at 0.8 mNAV has fully played out.

Update: BMNR released their 10-k. Wow, they really obfuscated there mNAV as of 11/20. My only takeaway is that shares outstanding as of 11/20 are 384mm. My model has shares outstanding as of 11/14 at 377mm. So, this confirms that my model is working properly.

Update: BMNR is back at a premium ~1.035!