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Entering the second half of June, the situation in the crypto market for 25 years is already clear! There are two main threads of trading logic that run through the crypto market this year: 1️⃣ A bright line is the battle between US President Donald Trump vs Fed Chairman Jerome Powell over whether to cut interest rates this year. While most macro analysts refuse to introduce a political dimension to analyse Trump's battle with Powell over whether to cut interest rates, anyone who understands does. Whether to cut interest rates or not is not directly related to the US inflation data and non-farm payrolls, it is actually a major grasp of the political game between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the United States. Observing the current FedWatch interest rate cut expectations, Polymarket prediction market and Twitter public opinion, it can be found that Powell is now firmly in control of the financial market discourse, and Trump can only rely on various tariff wars to exert maximum pressure and tear up some financial market influence on social media. Therefore, before the two major game equilibrium points in the future - Powell's departure in May 26 and the US midterm elections, the entire market is in a state of uncertainty brought about by Powell's confrontational game of tightening the market liquidity faucet and Trump fanning the flames everywhere. 2️⃣ A dark line is the integration of cryptocurrencies into the traditional financial system and participation in the reshaping of the US dollar financial system. Whether it is to increase the strategic reserve of bitcoin in the United States under the principle of fiscal neutrality in the planning, or the American version of the bond plan to increase the scale of stablecoins to more than $2 trillion in a few years, including the next market structure bill to clarify whether the regulator of the crypto market is the SEC or CFTC and whether PerpDEX represented by Hyperliquid can operate in the United States, Trump's regulatory actions and Vance's public speech, are all making it clear that the Trump administration is making cryptocurrency an integral part of reshaping the US dollar financial system in the 21st century. Therefore, 25 years is destined to be a year of uncertainty. For those of us who are retail investors, investing and trading this year is like a boat sailing into stormy seas and storms. It's an epic challenge to make money from investing and trading this year. But 25 years is not a flat year, and finding certainty in uncertainty is the way of the wise. There are two opportunities for certainty in the 26-year orientation that I am optimistic about: 1. U.S. version of the Bond-Stablecoin-PayFi-RWA 2. CFTC Regulated Crypto Marketplace - PerpDEX - Hyperliquid/Consumer Chain - Abstract Anyway, our mission for 25 years is not to play the table, and at the same time secretly prepare 26 years of hole cards. Above.

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Dogecoin DOGE experienced sharp swings over the past 24 hours, initially surging to 20 cents before falling to 19.1 cents, representing a 6.63% range. The meme coin formed a V-shaped recovery pattern late in the session, climbing back to $0.192 with rising volume, though resistance remains firm around just above 20 cents. News Background Dogecoin’s latest price action comes amid renewed interest in meme tokens following a series of crypto market shake-ups. Speculation around a possible DOGE ETF has gained traction, with Polymarket data indicating a 51% chance of SEC approval in 2025 — a development that could inject institutional capital into the market. Meanwhile, Dogecoin’s integration with Coinbase’s Base network is adding functional value, introducing wrapped DOGE into DeFi ecosystems for the first time on a large scale. The meme coin’s ability to draw high-volume support near key levels suggests that institutional buyers may be quietly building positions, even as retail traders remain cautious. Technical Analysis Breakdown • DOGE surged from $0.196 to $0.204 (4.08%), then reversed sharply to $0.191 (6.63% range). • Resistance confirmed at $0.203–$0.204 after three rejections on heavy volume (>1B units at 07:00). • Support formed at $0.192, with brief rebounds from this level despite weakness. • Final hour drop from $0.192 to $0.190 followed by a quick V-shaped recovery to $0.192. • Accumulation signs emerged with volume increasing past 2.3M in final minutes.

By sheer luck, I had an opening bell media hit with NYSE TV this last Thursday, the day Circle listed as CRCL. The NYSE studio is upstairs at gallery level. I'd first visited the NYSE on the same gallery balcony as a boy with my Dad. I remember getting the impression that IBM was a huge company that represented the future. Circle staff and guests filed in at 9:15, a much larger delegation than most bell-ringings. Not only was the floor packed, but both galleries were full. As the applause started, precisely at 9:29:30, everything else stopped. This wasn't the usual opening bell tea ceremony. NYSE President Lynn Martin stood beside an air-punching Circle CEO Jeremy Allaire, and the specialists, floor brokers, and other floor inhabitants joined in the cacophony. The energy took over the whole floor in a way that felt exceptional. I asked, cheekily, to the NYSE TV folks which specialist booth would trade CRCL. No one had any idea what I was talking about. The producer decided to move our hit to the floor with a handheld microphone and change our subject from bitcoin to stablecoins on the fly. That was fine—plenty to say about stablecoins. Standing within feet of Jeremy Allaire on the floor next to the bell balcony, doing our five-minute segment, it was pure electricity. It was the feeling when you finish a marathon and a beaming volunteer places a medal around your neck. Accomplishment and validation. This was a moment enabled by a friendlier SEC and coincident with meaningful blockchain legislation, but it didn't have the vibe of MSTR rapture or youthful DeFi exuberance. It felt mature and financial--adults celebrating. A long time coming USDC sprang to life in September 2018, just before a local peak in U.S. interest rates. In retrospect, it was a handy time to launch, when carry (yield from backing assets) was positive but yield expectations in crypto (whose practitioners mostly grew up in a zero interest rate world) remained low. When COVID hit, in 2020, ZIRP (Zero-Interest-Rate-Policy) returned suddenly, threatening the business model, but prompting crypto adoption and experimentalism. When the Fed aggressively raised rates in 2022 to help metabolize $5 trillion in COVID fiscal stimulus, stablecoins faced the opposite combination of supportive and threatening forces: higher carry revenues, but traumatized markets. Circle's failed SPAC attempt spanned this transition. Announced in July 2021 when 3-month yields were 0.05%, the Concord Acquisition deal was renegotiated in February 2022 (as rates began their historic climb) and ultimately terminated in December 2022—right as rates hit 4.42%. The SEC never declared the S-4 registration statement effective. The transaction "timed out" waiting for regulatory approval, just as the underlying economics of Circle's business were being boosted by soaring rates. Like yields Now, several years into a 4-5% rate environment, the model has adapted and appears to be working. USDC holders can receive "rewards" on Coinbase that are similar to risk-free yields. On-chain cash holdings and collateral can be enhanced with tokenized treasuries. The GENIUS Act on stablecoins appears in good shape for passage, opening up the market for greater stablecoin adoption and participation. The U.S. government has a new potential multi-trillion dollar customer for U.S. treasuries, providing much-needed demand for U.S. debt, which has become a chess piece in global trade. Circle (and other stablecoin issuers) are enjoying a good carry scenario, although near-term profitability has significant interest rate risk, now under the watchful scrutiny of CRCL shareholders and analysts.

WTF is going on at the SEC?