Whales want to sell Bitcoin? What is the impact of the US Big and US Act on the market?

Article source: Words Li Huawai

In recent days, the market seems to be less emotionally hot, Bitcoin continues to fluctuate in the high range, the overall trend looks relatively stable, most people (funds) may continue to wait and see or are waiting for some important news, and the daily discussion of the partners in the group is mainly focused on some hot news topics:

(1) The BTC ancient whale that has been dormant for 14 years has awakened

I took a brief look at it, and the news was supposed to have come from a tweet from Lookonchain to the effect that a Bitcoin holder with at least 80,000 BTC had started to wake up after 14 years of silence and transferred his Bitcoin holdings one after another. This is shown in the figure below.

Subsequently, the news began to spread rapidly on major crypto media and self-media platforms, followed by various speculations, such as: some people say that the ancient whale is an independent miner in 2011, some say that it is a Chinese national who was released from prison after serving his sentence, and some people say that this is the reaction ...... the super main force in testing the market

As for who these 80,000 bitcoins belong to, what is the intention of suddenly choosing to wake up at this time, and is it aimed at the potential huge selling pressure on the market? Or is it just a test of the super-workhorse? We don't know these yet, but judging from the price trend of Bitcoin in the past two days, it seems that funds have not shown any signs of front-running because of this incident.

If you are interested, you can use on-chain data tools such as Arkham to monitor the movement of those Bitcoin addresses in real time.

Since we talked about whales, let's also take a look at the overall dynamics of Bitcoin's whales at different levels:

by looking at the on-chain data, the Shark wallet (i.e., the wallet holding 100–1K BTC) is still actively increasing its holdings, while the Whale wallet (i.e., the wallet holding 1K-10K BTC) and the Humpback humpback wallet (i.e., the wallet holding >10K BTC) have been in a sell-off trend in the past year. This is shown in the figure below.

Through this data, we can further guess that Bitcoin seems to be entering a structural reallocation process in the past year, with early whales beginning to withdraw, and some medium-sized players such as institutions/funds starting to take over and gradually build positions. I think that the sell-off of the whale is not necessarily a bad thing in the medium and long term, and the fact that Bitcoin has become more dispersed can reduce the risk of price manipulation by the whale to a certain extent, that is, in the short term, the sell-off of the whale may suppress the price of the stage market, but as long as medium-sized players can continue to complete the absorption, then in the medium and long term, the market is still worth looking forward to. It's just that in this game of human wealth migration, the ones that will hurt more in the end may be Crab (i.e., wallets holding 1–10 BTC) or Shrimp (i.e., wallets holding <1 BTC).

(2) The U.S. House of Representatives voted to pass the "Big and Beautiful" billIn

last month's article, we highlighted two bills, namely the "The GENIUS Act" (full name is the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins Act), That is, to guide and establish the U.S. Stablecoin National Innovation Act, which can be referred to as the Stablecoin Act, and some people also directly call it the Genius Act) and the CLARITY Act (the full name is the Crypto Legal Accountability, Regulation, and Transparency for Innovation in Technology Act, that is, the Crypto Technology Legal Responsibility, Regulation, and Transparency in Technology Act). Both of these are bills that are more closely related to the crypto market, with the former being an important bill to regulate and legalize the stablecoin industry, and the latter setting clear rules to classify digital assets as commodities or securities.

And the One Big Beautiful Bill, which has now been passed, although it does not seem to have anything directly related to the crypto market, as a US fiscal bill, its passage means that [the Trump administration] will continue to start a more aggressive fiscal expansion plan.

We can look at this from two perspectives: in the short term, a series of related measures brought about by the big and American bill will definitely have the effect of increasing employment, stimulating consumption, and revitalizing the stock market to a certain extent. However, in the long run, it may also bring the risk of debt imbalances and lead to the continued depreciation of fiat currencies.

However, taken together, these bills seem to be good for scarce assets like Bitcoin in the long run, and will further enhance the attributes of Bitcoin digital gold.

(3) FTX's compensation plan does not cover Chinese users?

Regarding FTX's compensation, we have talked about and tracked it several times in previous articles, and it is worth looking forward to when many people have waited for a long time to finally get compensation, but in the past two days, news has come out: creditors in 49 jurisdictions, including China, may lose their right to claim, and the claims of creditors in these regions account for 5% of the total funds, worth about $825 million (calculated based on total compensation assets of $16.5 billion). Of these, 82% belong to Chinese creditors, with claims worth approximately $676.5 million.

After more than 3 years of long waiting, the promised bankruptcy liquidation may finally be exchanged for a "legal robbery", and those Chinese users who have been excluded from the legal system have no way to appeal, and it seems that they can only try to get due compensation again through special methods (such as transferring claims to entities owned outside China, transferring claims in the name of trustees or other entities outside China). This incident is indeed quite tragic.

more uncomfortable than losing money in a transaction is that your money is taken nakedly by someone else, and you can't do anything about it.

In short, there will always be a variety of news that can attract people's attention, and the market does not seem to make us too lonely, whenever the market is boring, we can often see some interesting news such as the above suddenly bursting out. However, as for the overall market dynamics, we will remain unchanged from the previous article, and although there are still many uncertainties ahead, it is very likely that we will continue to see bitcoin break through new all-time highs in Q3 (or postponed to Q4) if the playbook remains unchanged.

Again, if you're eyeing long-term opportunities, just keep accumulating more bitcoins according to your trading plan. And if you're looking for short-term opportunities, it's still a good time to keep an eye on and look for solid projects, and there's no need to spend all your energy on news coverage and bring yourself extra FUD.

So, how can we better and faster discover the phased opportunities?

For example, many people pay attention to the candlestick every day, but it is estimated that most people are just staring at the price above the candlestick, if we can find some price leading and lagging reactions with the help of the candlestick, then we can quickly identify some potential alpha opportunities.

We have also briefly sorted out some basic knowledge of K-line in the official account (DAO), such as the breakout structure, moving average golden cross, MACD, RSI, volume and price resonance, etc., we will not repeat it here, and those who are interested in this area can look back at the historical article.

But here we need to remind you that you should pay attention to the time period you use (hourly, daily, weekly), and at the same time identify the trading volume/transaction depth of the token, especially the K-line of those small coins or dogcoins is actually not of great reference significance (the kind that Dog Zhuang can draw as much as he wants, and there is no bottom line).

(2) Based on the data level

, starting from this cycle, it is already relatively difficult to earn considerable income directly through altcoins, because there are tens of thousands of new coins launched every day in this field, and liquidity is more dispersed than ever before. But it will also further dilute existing liquidity.

However, as long as the volatile nature of the market is still there, and the narrative hype can continue to play, then it is still an effective way or way for us to study and track the data with the help of some corresponding tools, and use this to find some possible opportunities.

In terms of data tools, we have included a lot of them in the "Toolbox" before, and we have already shared some of them in the e-book "Blockchain Methodology" last year (2024), here we briefly recall a few:

for example, Dexu, which is a data platform based on on-chain and social analysis, which provides a series of data such as popular narrative rankings, narrative price performance, industry analysis, project analysis, market signals, etc. This is shown in the figure below.

From the chart above, we can see that the 3 fastest growing narratives in the last 7 days are L1, Crypto Stocks, and Sweet-spot, of which the top three L1 price performance projects are PLUME, CELO, and ETH, and the top three Sweet-spot price performance projects are PENGU, AAVE, and HYPE. And this seems to be more in line with the recent market performance, because the recent hype of the concept of Crypto Stocks is relatively hot, while L1 carries the integration of technology, and Sweet-spot carries the ecological landing, which are one of the reasons for the good price performance of such projects to support and be hyped.

Let's talk a little bit more about Crypto Stocks here. Nowadays, many people see Crypto Stocks as a big negative for the crypto market, as it will lead to the diversion of existing liquidity, which is certainly theoretically true, as we mentioned above. But I think that Crypto Stocks is historical for the development of the crypto industry, and we don't need to look down on the entire crypto industry because of this incident, we need to give it a certain amount of time to practice. And for Crypto Stocks, there are some interesting things compared to the traditional stock market, such as:

- People can invest in unlisted private companies like OpenAI and SpaceX through platforms like Robinhood, which was previously difficult for retail investors to do (although participation in this form does not represent true shareholder equity at the moment).

- If the Crypto Stocks can be used permissionlessly in DeFi, there is a lot of imagination in this matter.

Currently, the global stock market capitalization is about $122 trillion (data from the WFE report), while the market size of Crypto Stocks is only $425 million, as shown in the chart below.

Let's imagine that in the near future, people can directly use protocols such as Pendle to bet on future dividends of U.S. companies, or use protocols such as AAVE to collateralize on-chain stocks for borrowing, and even continue to trade stocks on-chain when the traditional stock market is closed, and compared to traditional stock trading, on-chain trading can achieve lower fees, better trading experience, and higher capital utilization, which seems to be a very interesting thing! Of course, Crypto Stocks will face regulatory issues next, but with the advancement of (mainly in the United States) regulations and related bills for the crypto industry, there will definitely be a corresponding solution to this matter in the future, so let the bullets fly for a while.

Another example is Artemis, which is a comprehensive on-chain data analysis platform, which provides data analysis in various dimensions, including data comparison of different chains, data comparison of different protocols, stablecoin data of each chain, developer activity of each chain, and comparison of on-chain capital inflows and outflows. This is shown in the figure below.

From the chart above, we can see that the three chains with the most net inflows in the last 7 days are Ethereum, Polygon, and Unichain. The Ethereum side may be mainly based on the hype of the recent RWA topic (a large number of RWA projects are currently built on Ethereum), but it may also be related to the expectation of ETH ETF staking. Polygon is more likely due to the recent popularity of the concept of Crypto Stocks. As for Unichain, UNI, as a more typical sweet-spot, may also have been sought after by some funds recently.

Due to the limited space, here we will briefly list the two data tools Dexu and Artemis, and more on-chain tools interested partners can directly view them through the "Talk-Outside Toolbox" we have compiled earlier. In addition, in addition to the technical level and data-based level listed above, you can also make auxiliary judgments based on various dimensions such as macro level and message level, which need to be selected according to your own capital volume, investment cycle plan, and personal risk appetite.

Of course, the above example does not mean that we only need to blindly buy relevant project tokens as long as we see some past or recent data performance based on some dimensions, the main purpose of using data and other dimensional tools is actually to help us identify those narratives and projects that are more worthy of further research, after all, there are now more than 200 narratives (tracks) in the crypto field, and we cannot and do not have so much time and energy to study. Dimensional tools such as data are used to help us make directional trade-offs.

On the basis of this directional trade-off, if we want to invest in one or several projects, we need to continue to observe from a certain perspective, including how the tokenomics of the project is (such as the distribution of tokens, the utility of tokens, whether there are large unlocks in the near future, etc.), how is the community activity, how is the product experience, and how is the performance of product data (such as Fees/TVL/Revenue, etc.)...... In short, it's about researching what you care about most, DYOR, and only think about investing when it meets your preferences.

And the above are also fundamental research, the price performance factors in the market are often determined by a combination of many aspects, especially in an obvious upward trend, the price trend seems to not look at the fundamentals of the project, and the hype of emotions and funds can directly make a token (represented by MemeCoin) take off, but in the long run, investing in projects with good fundamentals will definitely be much more secure than investing in those local dog projects. Especially under the overall severe market environment, tokens with good fundamentals will at least be relatively comfortable to hold.

However, in terms of choosing this kind of thing, our advice remains the same: newcomers should do addition and then subtraction first, while old people should do subtraction directly, because learning is a process from more to less, and the same is true for most people's investment process. On the premise of mastering the necessary basic knowledge, in the actual transaction execution process, we do not need to establish too complex trading systems or trading strategies, let alone participate in the trading of too many projects, but should learn to subtract ourselves, as long as we find or form a few core indicators that are most suitable for ourselves, and then maintain a certain amount of patience, we can basically lead more than 90% of ordinary investors in this field.

Let's talk about these today, the source of the pictures/data cited in the text has been added to the words Li Huawai Notion, the above content is only a personal perspective and analysis, only for learning records and communication, and does not constitute any investment advice.