Axon price

WHAT I'M ACTUALLY DOING AFTER LIBERATION DAY Markets aren’t reacting to fundamentals right now -- they’re reacting to the idea that fundamentals might suddenly become unknowable. That’s what happens when a structural surprise like “Liberation Day” drops. This isn’t your typical inflation-driven pullback. It’s a psychological shock to the system. The numbers don’t even matter as much as the fact that no one knows what to believe anymore. And when confidence breaks, capital freezes. What Trump rolled out from the Rose Garden wasn’t just another tariff tweak -- it was a total rewrite of how the U.S. engages with global trade. A convoluted recalculation of trade deficits disguised as reciprocal tariffs, announced with enough pomp and permanence that it’s hard to dismiss as mere negotiation. There’s been months of planning. Treasury Secretary Bessent and Cantor’s Lutnick were both involved. This was premeditated. And markets are just starting to realize that what seemed like noise may actually be policy. The immediate response? Risk is being repriced -- hard -- especially in $QQQ, $SMH and global supply chain plays. We’re seeing it in the way tech are unraveling not just on volume, but on velocity. This isn’t about inflation readings or jobs data. It’s about companies -- and investors -- losing their ability to plan. Because what do you do when your input costs could spike 20% overnight? You pause. You freeze capex. You delay hiring. You soften guidance. And you prepare for a version of the world that’s structurally different from the one you were modeling 24 hours ago. That’s exactly what’s happening. Earnings expectations are being walked back not because the business has broken, but because visibility has. Especially for high-multiple names -- SaaS, semis, adtech -- where future growth assumptions are the core of the valuation, this kind of uncertainty is toxic. These aren’t companies missing earnings because demand fell off a cliff. They’re companies getting punished because the forecast range just blew out to infinity. And in this market, uncertainty is indistinguishable from failure. But this also creates one of the most asymmetric opportunity sets we’ve seen since 2020. Because when stocks are selling off not on broken fundamentals, but on narrative deterioration -- all it takes is a stabilization in that narrative to trigger a powerful re-rate. The bar for Q1 earnings is now as low as it’s been in a decade. If companies like $NVDA, $PLTR, $META & $GOOGL simply guide in-line -- not raise, not blow out expectations, just hold the line -- we could see violent upside moves in names that have been oversold purely on fear. That’s what the market’s forgetting right now: narratives flip. Fast. One speech from Treasury. One shift in rhetoric from USTR. One surprise resilience in earnings -- and suddenly this “permanent” structural shift looks like a temporary shock. And the bid comes back in hard. But that’s not the base case I'm betting on. The smarter play is to assume this volatility stays. That the tariffs -- or at least a significant portion of them -- are real. Trump sees trade deficits as theft. He’s said it for years. And now he has the mechanism to generate external revenue for tax cuts while branding it as “economic fairness.” That’s a powerful combination -- and it’s why we think this doesn’t get reversed anytime soon. So how do you position in that world? You don’t overleverage. You don’t chase dead cat bounces. You don’t pretend this is a V-shaped recovery. What you do is wait for pricing dislocations in structurally advantaged businesses with massive moats -- the companies that don’t just survive volatility, but benefit from it. Think vertically integrated infrastructure plays in early secular growth themes. Think AI-first enterprise platforms. Think new age of defense names. Names like $PLTR, $NET, $AXON, $AMZN, $SNOW, $CRWD aren’t suddenly bad businesses because of a tariff chart. In fact, they may be the infrastructure that helps global enterprises navigate this new era. And yet, they’re getting sold like cyclicals. That’s where the spread opens up between sentiment and execution. And that’s the spread that, historically, closes quickly and violently once conviction returns. Right now, no one has conviction. Everyone’s reacting. That’s why you'll start seeing margin calls, not fundamental calls. That’s why we’re seeing selling across sectors -- not because they’re all affected equally, but because everyone is hedging against what they don’t understand. And that’s what makes this moment so important: uncertainty itself has become the variable. Not interest rates. Not CPI. But the inability to forecast anything with precision. That’s the rare kind of environment where long-term investors can start legging into world-class names at 40% discounts without needing perfect timing. Because once the fog lifts, even just slightly, those multiples expand fast. Sentiment heals fast. And the next leg up can happen before most people have even realized the bottom is in. This isn’t about calling the exact low. It’s about identifying the inflection point where narrative becomes so dislocated from business reality that price no longer reflects risk -- it reflects fear. And fear, unlike broken fundamentals, doesn’t last forever. So while the headlines scream “SELL EVERYTHING” and the market starts pricing in structural recession scenarios, what I see is something very different. I see a market that has already front-loaded the pain -- before the actual damage shows up. And in my experience, that’s how bottoms form. Not when everything feels calm -- but when everything feels unhinged, and yet the businesses are still standing. Because this is a marathon. Not a sprint. You don’t get paid for timing every move. You get paid for staying solvent, staying patient, and buying when others are too shaken to see straight. Volatility is the cost of being early. But in secular revolutions -- like AI, space, digital infrastructure, and computing -- being early is everything. So stay alert. Stay focused. Trade around the edges if you must. But don’t let the chaos scare you out of structural conviction. If you’ve done the work, this is when it matters most. Because when the dust settles, this won’t be remembered as the day the market broke. It’ll be remembered as the day the market reset. And the winners are already being marked down.