ArkStream Alpha Daily | 06/19 Hotspot Selection 1. FOMC's expectation of interest rate cuts twice, but only 1 vote supported it. @federalreserve Yesterday's FOMC meeting was expected to be a "steady expectations" release, but it ended up making the market more uneasy. The consensus for two rate cuts this year was actually just one vote away from disappearing (see the chart), with severe internal divisions, and the dot plot looks more like a result of compromise. The market has been sensitive to uncertainties like war and tariffs, and the Fed's continued pretense of "everything is normal" has directly caused emotions to drop, leading to two consecutive days of declines in US stocks. The current market seems to sense something in advance; the black swan hasn't flown yet, but emotions have already slid down. Interestingly, if the FOMC truly turns pessimistic next, it might actually become a positive signal for the market. It's important to know that unstable market confidence reflects not the interest rates, but the "lack of belief that the Fed really has control of the direction." 2. JPMG stablecoin ignites the Base chain, AERO rises 80% in two weeks. @Morgan issues JPMG stablecoin + @circle associated with Coinbase surges + @coinbase expands US stock business, a complete combo is set to launch @base. JPMorgan plans to deploy JPMG to Base, allowing its clients to use compliant stablecoins. Meanwhile, Coinbase is expanding its US stock business, creating a synergy that benefits the Base ecosystem. At that time, the TVL and liquidity on the Base chain will significantly increase, making DeFi projects the direct beneficiaries. The deployment of JMPG on Base is similar to the USD1 moment of BSC, where both funding depth (TVL) and trading activity (tx numbers) will greatly improve. The biggest beneficiaries are the DeFi and meme projects exclusive to Base. As the saying goes: "The early bird catches the worm": $AERO, the largest native DEX on the Base chain, has seen its price rise over 80% in the past two weeks ($0.5 → $0.92). 3. Circle breaks $200, structural high? @circle What will happen after the rise? $CRCL stock price breaks $200, with a market cap reaching $48 billion at one point, a 6-fold increase since IPO, but the company's profits need to be split 50% with Coinbase, while Coinbase's current market cap is only $75 billion, meaning there is a clear premium and misjudgment in the market's expectations for Circle. Even the rational Ark Invest has continuously reduced its holdings in Circle this Monday and Tuesday, cashing out over $90 million at high positions. After the fundamentals, no matter how big the bubble gets, it will eventually need to correct. But as Arthur Hayes said, don't FOMO, and don't rush to short. 4. Is Jump back? Made $100 million from LUNA, Wormhole compensated $300 million. @jump_ officially announces its return. They once filled the hole when $320 million was stolen from Wormhole, and also made $100 million in arbitrage during the LUNA/UST operations, ultimately paying a $123 million fine to the SEC in settlement. Now, they are proudly reviewing the projects they have led in construction over the past few years, including Firedancer (Solana high-performance client), Wormhole (cross-chain protocol), DoubleZero, Pyth, etc., and they say they will not only continue to delve into technology but also actively participate in the formulation of US regulatory policies. With the current window of regulatory relaxation, Jump is transforming from a "market-making expert" to a "chain infrastructure fanatic" + "compliance pioneer," likely preparing for the next big move. The music next to Madison Square Garden is playing again.