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Article source: Words Li Huawai Today is another rainy day, so the little pot friend didn't want to go out to play, but sat honestly at the table and painted, and I just happened to be able to write articles at home. As I was writing the article, there was lightning and thunder outside, so I asked her: Do you know why lightning appears in the sky? She looked up at me like a fool and replied categorically: Because there is a power bank in the sky. This answer was completely unexpected, but I didn't correct her immediately, after all, for a kindergarten friend, I feel that her answer is also quite creative, and I will have time to tutor her about thunder and lightning in the evening. Back to the market. With Bitcoin hitting new all-time highs again, ETH has also rallied well in recent days, and the price is currently around $3,000, and hopefully this momentum will continue, and if ETH can continue to break through and rise, we may have another mini-copycat season. In fact, for a long time in the past, the topic of altcoin season has been talked about many times, and even a little bit of "wolf" meaning, now as long as it is mentioned again, most people will show sneer, because every time everyone is full of expectations for the cottage season, but every time it is disappointing and disappointing. As a result, there is now a relatively unified view (one that most people would agree with) that the traditional altcat season (roughly manifested as a general revolving altcoin rally) is difficult to reproduce. Including some partners in the group a few days ago, when discussing this topic, some people also joked that the cottage season might as well be changed to cottage week, cottage day, and cottage second...... It's not so much that everyone has been looking forward to the copycat season, but everyone is just expecting that it will be easier to make money during the bull market, but the market often doesn't go the way most people expect, and when most people start to go long, there is a high probability that it will fall, and vice versa. As we mentioned in an earlier article: the main logic or play of the market is to make as many people lose money as possible. For example, BANANAS31, which appeared in the list of gainers many times a few days ago, was pulled to a stage high yesterday (July 11), and when everyone's emotions were full, it began to plummet today, with a single-day decline of 77%. This is shown in the figure below. I have to sigh a little, yesterday was the "cottage season", today it has directly become a "cottage festival", many people hope to be able to use the bull market to make money easily, but the final result is often to achieve easy loss of money in the bull market. Originally, during the bear market, everyone didn't make money, they seemed to be equal to each other, and they were all poor and good, but during the bull market, they lost money, why did this happen? We have discussed this issue many times in previous articles, and it can be summarized simply: Therefore, the first thing we need to overcome in this matter is our FOMO mentality. As we mentioned in our previous article (July 10th): as long as the market is still there, then we will not lack trading opportunities, all we have to do is to continue to stick to it and not be eliminated by the market. If you don't manage your positions well enough or don't discipline enough, and you lose (or get trapped) most of your portfolio money, then we don't have enough money to take advantage of new or even better opportunities. Moving on to the topic of copycat season. Although the long-awaited "copycat season" often turns into a "copycat festival", as we said at the beginning of this article, if this upward momentum can continue in the past few days, especially if ETH can continue to break through and rise, we may have a new mini copycat season again. The difference between the mini altcoin season and the traditional altcat season is that the grand occasion of the comprehensive altcoin rotation has become a structural market, that is, it has become a short-term outbreak of a certain sector (such as AI, RWA), or a huge increase in individual projects (such as PEPE, TRUMP) in a specific phased small cycle. Recall that in the July 1 article, we talked about what we might face in the third quarter as a whole, focusing on a few areas: - The third quarter of this year should be a relatively important market period in terms of the big cycle, and we might as well call it: the intersection of crypto regulation and market change. Whether it is at the macro level, the political level, the policy level, the market level...... We may all continue to witness something different. - If the next development trend based on various macro or policy aspects does not meet the market's expectations (a new black swan appears), then it cannot be ruled out that the third quarter will experience another wave of correction or relatively large volatility. But if the playbook remains unchanged, we are likely to continue to see Bitcoin break through new all-time highs in Q3. - If Bitcoin can continue to hit new highs in the second round of the bull market (comparing the current market with the market in September 2021), then there is a high probability that Bitcoin's dominance will decline later, and then we will have the opportunity to see a mini-copycat opportunity for the fourth time. - In addition to Bitcoin, altcoins wishing to reallocate some positions would be better off concentrating on narrative areas such as Stablecoin, RWA, etc. Taking Stablecoin as an example, stablecoin-related projects such as AAVE and ENA will still have some room for performance. Judging from the actual trend of the market in the last two weeks, due to the overall relative optimism on the macro and policy aspects (there have been no new black swans), Bitcoin broke through the all-time high again earlier than we originally expected, Ethereum has also begun to break through the key short-term resistance level, and many altcoins have risen by more than 10%, for example, the highest increase in the last 7 days of AAVE we mentioned is about 18%, and the highest increase of ENA in the last 7 days is about 50%. Although there seems to be some new changes in sentiment due to the rally, we will continue to maintain the view in the previous article: we will remain cautious about the third quarter as a whole. If Bitcoin can really reach the position near $130,000 in Q3, then there is a high probability that there will continue to be some copycat opportunities, but then it may experience a new round of phased small pullbacks or shocks, which may last for 1-2 months, and it is not ruled out that Bitcoin may pull back to around $100,000, and altcoins may face a pullback of at least 20-30% again. As we mentioned in our previous article (July 10), when it comes to making money, some people value the current price, while others value the law of cycles. Whether it is a long-term transaction or a short-term or medium-term transaction, you must think clearly about how much money you can make when you are right and how much you can accept to lose when you are wrong. Opportunity and risk are often proportional, the surge is to plunge better, the plunge is to soar better, and it is more important to keep the gains in the later stage of the bull market than to take a higher risk to gamble. Many people will always habitually say this sentence when facing unexpected changes in the market: "This time seems to be different", but in terms of human nature, it seems that nothing is different every time. It just so happened that when I watched everyone's daily discussion in the group yesterday, a partner said something that was more appropriate to the situation: retail investors have their own logic, see others make money before buying, and see that they lose money before selling. I think the above sentence is more vividly described. I remember that at the beginning of this year, when the market sentiment of $100,000 in bitcoin was relatively high, many people swore that they would buy it as long as bitcoin fell to 70,000 because they missed it. As a result, bitcoin really fell to around $70,000, but the sound of buying bitcoin was basically inaudible. For another example, when Bitcoin fell from 70,000 to 50,000 last year (2024), it was the same, and when it really fell, many people would not buy it again. In the same way, if bitcoin has a chance to continue to rise to $12 or $130,000, and then fall back to around $90,000 or $100,000, will you consider buying it? I estimate that most people who go short will still not buy, and the later the bull market, the higher the stage risk of this buying, especially for those who have short-term trading goals, they will continue to think that Bitcoin has risen so much, and the next increase will definitely be limited, it is better to buy some copycats or earth dog blogs recommended by bloggers directly for a chance. However, for altcoins, we have discussed many times in the previous series of articles, for a period of time, in fact, it is very difficult for most altcoins, in the impact of the macro environment, changes in market structure and liquidity is seriously diluted under the market conditions, it is difficult for us to accurately predict in advance what the next explosive hype project (token) will be, it seems that only those products (projects) with revenue-generating ability can still be worth looking forward to in the medium and long term. Here are a few examples: For example, Hyperliquid (HYPE), which has been performing well in terms of price for some time, has now become one of the dApps with the highest fees. This is shown in the figure below. But because the project is now worth $15.5 billion (currently ranked 11th in terms of market capitalization at $47) and has an Mcap/TVL ratio of 33.39, while there may still be some upside opportunities, we believe that the upside in the short term is limited, and if you still want to participate in such a project now, then it seems that you should appropriately lower your earnings plan goals. For example, projects like Pendle and AAVE are also projects that we've mentioned several times in previous articles, including in the March 28 article where we talked about: Price aside, projects like Pendle, AAVE, and so on, I've always thought they fall into the category of good projects because they can generate sustainable income on their own. This is shown in the figure below. Currently, Pendle is ranked 101st by market cap with a 0.13 Mcap/TVL ratio, and AAVE is ranked 29th by market cap with a 0.16 Mcap/TVL ratio. So, in terms of the above projects, if you want to pick and choose the projects to participate in in terms of revenue + market capitalization, then theoretically, it seems that the chances of Pendle or AAVE look greater. Of course, the above is just a simple example, which is based on the two single dimensions of the project's revenue + market capitalization, and you may also need to combine other dimensions or indicators to comprehensively consider more dimensions to improve your investment winning rate, such as token unlocking, product roadmap, project investment/cooperation, etc. At the same time, we also mentioned in our previous article (i.e., the March 28 article we mentioned above) that from the perspective of medium and long-term narratives, DeFi, Stablecoins and RWA are the narratives worth looking forward to and paying attention to this year. We've talked a lot about Stablecoins in our previous article, so let's talk about RWA a little more. For a long time, many people (retail investors) seem to be not optimistic about the RWA field, but some large companies are continuing to deploy, such as BlackRock has launched its own on-chain fund, JPMorgan Chase is launching a stablecoin on the Base platform, and Robinhood is introducing tokenized stocks on-chain...... We expect that as more and more companies get involved in tokenization this year (many of which are currently based on the stock market), eventually this hype effect may also return to the crypto space and have some positive effects on some of the tokens related to the RWA track. In other words, this year's Q3 (or Q4) RWA narrative is theoretically worth paying attention to. Of course, now I can't directly tell you which RWA token to buy will make money, and here we are just providing a thought or idea. According to the Coingecko data platform, there are currently more than 500 projects under the RWA concept, and if you are interested in such projects, then you may want to focus on two perspectives: One is those RWA projects that already have relatively successful products. The second is RWA projects that have the ability to continue to attract more on-chain funds to join. However, in order to facilitate the research of some new partners, we may as well briefly list a few related RWA projects for you: For example, Ondo Finance, a few days ago, saw a report in Cointelegraph that they will acquire Oasis Pro, a compliant brokerage platform, and plan to launch a tokenized stock trading service for non-US users in the next few months, which also means that Ondo is stepping up its efforts to deploy tokenization business. At present, Ondo already owns tokenized bond products such as OUSG (short-term Treasury bonds) and USDY (income US dollar), and they also plan to launch an exclusive cross-chain bridging tool to enhance asset transfers, and jointly launch a $250 million RWA investment fund with Pantera. Overall, Ondo's position as the current leader in on-chain U.S. bonds seems to be stable. For example, Backed Finance, the recently very popular xStocks is a product launched by them, xStocks is a series of tokenized securities collateralized by real stocks 1:1, the product was officially launched at the end of June, and more than 60 tokenized stocks have been launched so far, including Apple, Tesla, Nvidia, etc., and it is expected that they will continue to expand to more DeFi platforms in the third and fourth quarters of this year. However, at present, the project has not launched its own platform or governance token, only xAssets (i.e., tokenized real-world assets). Another example is Chintai Network (they plan to introduce RWA assets into the Bitcoin ecosystem), Robinhood (one of the main promoters of Tokenized Stocks), Lendr Fi (it is said that the mainnet will be launched soon, and a liquidity token called LsRWA will be introduced to participate in protocol collateral and earnings...... Wait, interested partners can do this to further expand their attention. Let's talk about these today, the source of the pictures/data cited in the text has been added to the words Li Huawai Notion, the above content is only a personal perspective and analysis, only for learning records and communication, and does not constitute any investment advice.

prediction: kraken is going to issue their own tokenised stocks via @xStocksFi which is bullish for me cuz i bought 200k worth at 4 bil valuation 3 years ago and no liquidity event insight

Merkle3s Weekly Market Overview 📊 7/9 1️⃣ Macro Market Highlights 📈 - The U.S. released positive employment data, which may delay the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. - #BTC continues to attempt to break new highs, with selling pressure around $110K largely digested, increasing the probability of further price increases. 2️⃣ Rising Popularity of Tokenized Stocks 📊 - @RobinhoodApp launched a tokenized product for U.S. stocks and plans to create a dedicated Robinhood chain focused on #RWA. European users received "stock token" airdrops from #OpenAI and #SpaceX. - The #xStocks on the #Solana chain allows users to trade stock tokens on-chain without KYC. 3️⃣ On-Chain Market Analysis 🛡️ - $BTC is currently in a structural consolidation phase, with the market primarily oscillating within a range due to a lack of significant negative events. - The current BTC market is mainly driven by chip holding rather than demand, with limited liquidity and low market activity, indicating limited downside risk. However, without major catalysts, the upside potential is also difficult to expand significantly. - Since April, institutional selling pressure has eased, and buying has stabilized. BTC continues to consolidate, with an overall trend still leaning positively, looking forward to the market in the second half of 2025. 4️⃣ Strong Continuous Inflows into ETFs 📈 - Spot ETFs continue to attract capital inflows. This week, the #BTC ETF saw a net inflow of approximately $769 million, and the #ETH ETF saw a net inflow of about $219 million, maintaining net inflows for eight consecutive weeks. 5️⃣ Competition Among Meme Platforms Heats Up 🔥 - The @bonk_fun platform's 24-hour trading volume surpassed #pumpfun, achieving a market share of 55.1%, ranking first. - @JupiterExchange launched its own token platform #JupiterStudio, leveraging protocol entry and liquidity advantages.

Merkle3s Weekly Snapshot📊 7/9 1️⃣ Macro Highlights 📈 - The U.S. reported favorable unemployment data, potentially delaying Fed rate cuts. - #Bitcoin continues to test new highs; selling pressure around the $110K level appears largely absorbed, increasing the likelihood of upward momentum. 2️⃣ Tokenized Stocks Gaining Traction 📊 - @RobinhoodApp introduced tokenized U.S. stocks, with plans to build its own Robinhood Chain specifically for #RWAs. European users received “stock tokens” airdrops from #OpenAI and #SpaceX. - #xStocks tokens on #Solana are enabling users to trade on-chain without KYC requirements. 3️⃣ On-Chain Market Analysis 🛡️ - $BTC market is in structural consolidation, with range-bound fluctuations in the absence of significant negative news. - Current BTC price movements are dominated by holders reluctant to sell rather than demand-driven. Limited liquidity and reduced activity suggest limited downside but also constrain significant upside without major catalysts. - Since April, reduced institutional selling pressure and stable buying support have kept BTC consolidating with a slight upward bias. Continued bullish sentiment expected in the second half of 2025. 4️⃣ ETF Inflows Remain Strong 📈 - Spot ETFs continue attracting funds. This week, #BTC ETFs saw net inflows of $769 million, while #ETH ETFs recorded net inflows of $219 million, marking the eighth consecutive week of net inflows. 5️⃣ Meme Platform Competition Heats Up 🔥 - @bonk_fun platform surpassed #pumpfun in 24-hour trading volume, taking the top spot with a 55.1% market share. - @JupiterExchange launched its proprietary launchpad platform, #JupiterStudio, leveraging advantages from protocol integration and liquidity.