After March 2024, there will be no narrative for altcoins in the crypto space; In the first half, Bitcoin is the main storyline, while in specific environments (tight liquidity), Ethereum (ETH) speculates and opens up side casinos; Now in the second half, Ethereum is the main storyline, and I haven't seen any other native narratives in the crypto space; since I haven't seen any native narratives in the crypto space, it means that all altcoins, including Ethereum's little brothers, are just following along driven by emotions; The past logic was: Bitcoin overflowed to Ethereum, Ethereum overflowed to altcoins, all coins took off, the profit effect was huge, expanding the circle, attracting outside funds, sector rotation, until the inflow of funds was insufficient to support the upward spiral of the crypto space, and then it crashed...... But after these years of baptism, just look at what kind of behavior the altcoin whales have, let alone the altcoin whales, look at what kind of behavior the old investors have; At this stage, can we bet on altcoins to rise due to emotions? Yes, but it must be cautious. If you don't believe it, go all in on altcoins, and let's see in a month or two, still looking at Dogecoin at $1, and Ethereum at $300..... damn it!
Continuing to expand along this logic, whether we usually pay attention to macro news or the K-line on the disk, we essentially want to capture the sentiment of the market and the capital flow represented by the emotion, after all, the flow of funds is the real key to determining the rise and fall. And money will also flow in the direction that is most likely to produce results, so the narrative is so important. Generally speaking, the market will be divided into these stages from cold to hot. Phase 1 (Chaos Phase) There is no definite main line of funds, and even pure memes and non-narrative copycats (DOGE, PEPE, etc.) can also eat a wave of rebound. The reason is "buy first and then talk", no matter what track you are, bet on a mood first. Stage 2 (narrative convergence period) Funds began to concentrate in directions with clear narratives, such as this round of ETF concepts (BTC, ETH spot ETFs). Ecologically valuable altits (UNI, Pengu) have natural liquidity and user bases because they are attached to main chains such as ETH and SOL, with high activity, high volatility, and fast rebound. At the same time, the premium of "affiliated copycats" comes from the rise of the chain itself + the return of ecological funds, which is a dual power. Stage 3 (track fermentation period) Once ETH is confirmed to be the leading role, various branches of the ETH ecosystem (DEFI, L2, meme) will rotate. UNI (DEX leader), ARB/OP (L2), and ETH-based memes (such as the old SHIB and new high-activity memes) will all benefit. The SOL ecosystem will be marginalized, unless there is an independent narrative breakthrough, otherwise it may indeed enter a period of downturn (it has happened historically, for example, the presence of the BNB system in the ETH bull market has declined significantly). ETF bull market characteristics The chain with ETF is the top of the pyramid (BTC, ETH), which eats the most stable large capital inflow first. Next, funds may flow along the ETF main chain (ETH ETF → DEFI/L2/meme), not evenly distributed, but prioritize benchmark assets (such as UNI, ARB, popular memes). So if ETH is confirmed to be the core narrative for the next 1-2 years, the layout route can be: ETH → DEFI Leader (UNI) → L2 (ARB, OP) → High Active Meme (WIF, SHIB) The odds of pure altcoins (DOGE, PEPE) will drop quickly after the second stage, unless there is a major independent event itself. PS: The above currency attributes are only used as examples, which does not mean that this is not necessarily the case
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