Market Thoughts Week 47 (7/7/25-7/11/25)

7/8/25 TradFi Markets finishing slightly weaker today, and down close to 1% since the start of the week. Tariff news driving much of the weakness the past two days. Yesterday Trump announced tariffs on a number of countries (including Japan and Korea) ranging from 25-40%. This morning, Trump said that August 1st tariff deadlines would not be extended, while Bessent noted that announced tariff rates could be re-negotiated before the deadline. Pretty rude of Trump to say he won't chicken out on Taco Tuesday, if you ask me. Still, the market reaction today indicates that either the markets no longer care about tariffs or that the expectation is for Trump to chicken out once again. Yields up 3-5 bps since the end of last week. Rate cut expectations a little lower at -1.97 through the end of this year. FOMC minutes Wednesday, but other than than weekly jobless claims, a pretty light data calendar. Crypto Majors still looking constructive with $ETH looking very good here. No change in outlook still. On-chain feels a bit weaker than last week without any interesting new launches (at least from my perspective). Though we had a really great run over the weekend with Bonk ecosystem coins. #Launchcoin teasing some collaboration with Whop, saving the chart. It does feel like they are really working on a lot of things in the background. Excited for the new comms -- I hope they can now better communicate with the market about their vision. A little bit of trading to start the week for me. Not sure I mentioned but I bought some $IKUN around ~$18mm at the end of last week, but cut it ~$21mm. Initially I wanted some Bonk ecosystem exposure but I've been trying to do this thing where I de-risk on a trend break. I also cut and rebought #bluechip. Sold ~$6mm for close to a 150% gain. Then added back ~$11mm. Again, trying the trend break thing. I should have actually sold around $10mm but I just wasn't paying close attention over the weekend. I bought back because of the unusual PA, which gave me some confidence in the cabal. But this was pretty poor execution as I had been planning on waiting until the $PUMP TGE to buy back (along with other BONK ecosystem stuff) and had wanted to buy closer to $8mm if it went there otherwise. I just FOMO'd, plain and simple. I bought some $FLIPR with my initial #bluechip proceeds. A little over a 1% position at ~$4.7mm. Just thought it was a good narrative, a good looking chart, and there seems to be speculation that Kalshi could integrate. Also bought a little #chillhouse at $7.5mm, buying back the tokens I sold last week. At this point, I'm just waiting on the $PUMP TGE to deploy more capital. It seems opinions are split, which is a good setup for a pump (no pun intended). Emotions et al. Relatively neutral from an emotional perspective. Had a wonderful weekend with friends and family. Got a lot of compliments on my fitness. It's nice having worked on something for a full year and seeing other people notice the progress. Not a ton else going on. Life is pretty solid, and I can't really complain. My kids are at a really fun age, and I'm just trying to enjoy it while it lasts.