Last Friday, I originally wanted to post notes on an FN compilation article, but suddenly I had gallbladder inflammation and severe allergic reactions around my eyes, which sent me to the hospital for two days. Now I can finally calm down and organize my thoughts. After reading the entire article, I feel as if I am in the darkness before dawn; it is confusing and cold at this moment, but I am incredibly certain that the light will eventually come. I have also clarified a lot of my personal confusion over the past two months. 💡💡💡 Current situation: The crypto industry is undergoing a brutal transformation. As institutional capital begins to enter, the core logic of the industry has shifted from "narrative" to "economic sustainability," and projects that cannot generate real income are being rapidly eliminated. In the L1 ecosystem, DeFillama data shows that among the current 300+ blockchain networks, only 7 have daily transaction fees exceeding $200,000, not to mention L2; Most of the "popular" projects that will launch tokens in 2024 have already plummeted by 90%; Projects that rely solely on airdrop subsidies, token speculation, and other operational methods, overly pursuing marketing gimmicks, cannot sustain themselves and will only further deviate from token prices and economic fundamentals. ... ... 🌱🌱🌱 Three major trends revealed through case studies: 1. Tokens are no longer a necessity; practical products that do not issue tokens can also succeed. For example, Phantom Wallet has generated over $400 million in annual revenue thanks to its Solana ecosystem layout; established products like MetaMask continue to be profitable without tokens; trading tool Axiom has daily transaction fees reaching $1.8 million; (I would like to add that the Chinese project @gmgnai is also one of the successful representative cases in this round); New projects are more inclined to establish revenue first before considering tokenization; 2. Capital flow is being restructured, with traditional institutions starting to acquire leading players in niche markets. For instance, hedge funds are focusing on Aethir. @AethirCloud targets the AI computing power shortage by building a GPU leasing market, accumulating about $78 million in revenue and achieving profitability since the end of last year; Additionally, traditional institutions are shifting their valuation standards to use financial metrics like price-to-sales (P/S) ratios. The lower this value, the healthier it typically is; for example, Aave's health value is about 40 times, while bubble projects can reach up to 1000 times; 3. Dominance in niche tracks is superior to competition in broad ecosystems; being a leader in a "small pond" is more sustainable than burning money in a red ocean market. For example, Maple has thoroughly understood institutional lending, and @maplefinance focuses on serving the institutional lending needs overlooked by traditional banks, managing $1.2 billion in assets with only $30 million in costs. Conclusion: For entrepreneurs, the insight is to abandon the old model of "thinking inertia" and deeply cultivate chargeable vertical scenarios. After the industry's painful period, those who survive will ultimately be the pragmatists who place economic models above narratives. For investors, it is essential to be wary of "three-no tokens" that lack real income, user base, and niche positioning. Finally, I pose a question: can we all respond to this change with clarity? Like many critical questions in life, only time will reveal the answer. I highly recommend reading the original article. 👇
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