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Text: Bai Ding   Here I would like to share all my investment experiences over the past year.   At the beginning of last year, I had more than 20,000 yuan in my hands, and now I have nearly 1 million in my hands. I don't think this dozens of times increase is due to luck, but more from my investment research for more than eight hours a day on average, and my own work in the crypto industry. Compared to ordinary users, I may have 100 times more information than ordinary users (not an exaggeration, you will know after reading this article), so I know how to make money, ordinary users may not even have heard of it. There is very little money to be made on the exchange Early in the year, my assets went from more than $20,000 to $200,000, but none of that money was made on exchanges. Why?   First of all, let's be clear: the crypto market is not just a form of trading that buys and sells cryptocurrencies on exchanges. If you only know the form of exchange, there is only one way to get high multiple returns in theory: open a contract. But this is only theoretical, needless to say making money, and the number of users who can open contracts without losing money is no more than one in a thousand in the market. There is no need to refute me on this point, because I know much more about exchanges than ordinary users in the industry, and this thousandth is absolutely true, if there is no money lost by users in opening contracts, there is no wealth of Changpeng Zhao, the richest man in crypto, today.   So how did I earn my first pot of gold? It's in the on-chain world. As shown in the figure above, our assets originally exist in the first layer - the real world, if you want to participate in crypto trading, you need to deposit money into the second layer - the exchange. But in fact, the second-tier exchange is only a bridge rather than a destination, and the real high-yield methods are on the third layer - the blockchain on-chain world, where the gameplay of this world is not only about speculating coins, but also in various forms.   The coins in the exchange are also from the chain. When a coin on the chain develops to a certain scale and the market value is large enough, it will be listed on the exchange. But there is a problem that when its market value is large enough, it can't rise several times, which is the reason for the low income ceiling of the exchange. So all the coins I mentioned later are also on-chain, and the exchange can't find them.   So why is it so hard for the average person to make a lot of money in the crypto market? Because you don't know the on-chain world, you can only play the rest of the people on the chain in the exchange.   So why is the on-chain income so high, but most people are not participating? Very simply, the first operation is slightly more difficult, the second is not like the exchange, all the assets that can be traded are listed, you need to collect your own information, and the third is risky, you need to have enough investment research (investment research) ability.   The first pot of gold stage I started with 20,000-30,000 yuan, and divided the money into three equal parts, which were used for conservative, offensive, and aggressive investments. In the end, the radical part made my capital reach 200,000 yuan, and in retrospect, this was the first stage of my crypto investment, and I regarded this 200,000 yuan as my first pot of gold.   By the way, let's talk about the first two parts first - basically no money.   Conservative part: I bought Ethereum at around $2,200 and threw it into the Blast airdrop, which was relatively popular at the time. Result: Blast earnings were much lower than expected and almost negligible, but Ethereum rose to $4,000. Earned about 10,000.   Offensive part: At that time, I had already started investment research, but the time was too short and the level was too low, and second, I didn't enter the industry to work, so I didn't have enough information, so I would only chase market hotspots, so I bought TURT and MUBI (launch platform and stablecoin platform) of the Bitcoin ecosystem at almost the highest point, and now I have basically lost all of them. The falling price of the currency was a big blow to my mentality, which did not have much money at that time, after all, it accounted for almost one-third of my total assets.   Let's talk about the radical part. I studied quickly and worked hard enough, and I already had a lot of investment research skills. The profits of the radical part are also divided into three parts: Troll, Sync, and Merlin Ecology.   On January 9, 2024, Musk changed the profile of the X account to "(CTO) Chief Troll Officer". We know that Musk can shout out a 100 billion market value of Dogecoin by tweeting casually, not to mention that the Twitter profile will be changed? So when I heard the news, I bought Troll tokens and later added some more, totaling about $1,000 in principal. Soon the news fermented, and within half a month, Troll disappeared by two 0s (a hundred times the increase), I didn't buy it for the first time, and I didn't sell at the highest point, but I still got 6-70 times the profit, and the profit was about 60,000 yuan (excluding gas wear, Ethereum's gas was still very high at that time). Sync is probably in February-March 2024. It is a pledged profit-taking token. Now we all know that I am good at economic modeling, and I have established a comprehensive economic modelling system, and this ability has begun to emerge at that time. I see that Snyc is a standard "short-term sharp rise and fall model", which I will not expand on here, but can refer to the chart below. To put it simply, such a model can rise many times in the short term, but as long as there is a slight downward trend, it will also quickly go to zero. At this time, I already have a certain investment and research ability, so after studying the project, I bought a total of 2,000 yuan at the low point, took it for about a month, and it rose about 60 times, but because I still couldn't achieve the unity of knowledge and action at that time (greed), I didn't sell it at the first time of the fall, and the next day I cut it in half, and quickly sold it to get about 30 times the income, about 60,000 yuan. There was a friend in the group who bought with me at the time, but didn't sell it (it fell even more sharply later), but in the end he still got a lot of profits. After these two gains, I have become confident, at least from the bottom of my heart, I recognize my investment research ability. That's when Merlin came, and it was my most complex analysis, and it was also the most complicated operation.   The whole logic is quite complicated, here is just a brief introduction, Merlin is a layer 2 network of the Bitcoin ecosystem, after research, I found that its technology is extremely poor (multi-signature cross-chain, and multi-signature key guessing is mostly in the hands of the founders themselves) and has the ultimate marketing ability, such a project is likely to be short-term or soft run, it turns out that it is true. But a project like Merlin, because of its strong marketing and loud voice, is very suitable for cutting in at the right time to seek the skin of the tiger.   Before the launch of Merlin Chain, a series of NFTs issued by it, BRC420, were pulled to extremely high prices, such as blue boxes, blue ores, etc. (old players should remember). Then Merlin induces everyone to pledge these NFTs to obtain airdrop income, note that the pledge cannot be sold. At that time, I guessed that Merlin might have collected the chips in everyone's hands, and then shipped them in large quantities, and directly smashed the NFT at a high position to the bottom to make a profit, and at this time, no matter how it was smashed, because the user had pledged it and could not sell it, he could only cry when he watched it, that is, "closed the door and beat the dog". And that's exactly what it turned out to be. At the same time, I guess that after the Merlin chain is launched, it will definitely pull some memes to create a wealth effect to attract everyone to participate, and then smash the market to make a profit - basically this is the case with every new chain launch. Based on these analyses, my approach is: buy the NFT but don't participate in the staking, and sell it when there is a slight downtrend; At the same time, when the Merlin chain was first launched, buy its leading Memes - Huhu and Voya, and sell them at the high. The result is basically the same as my analysis, and I also made a profit, but this time it was only a few times, but because the principal had accumulated at this time, the income was also 100,000 yuan smaller. The following is an excerpt from my analysis of Merlin's trading article at the time. At this time, I had about 200,000 yuan in my hands.   Follow-up investment phase At this point, investing has become easier for me for three reasons: 1. If the principal is more, there is no need to pursue too high multiple returns, and there are more targets to choose from. Just follow the macro trend. 2. The investment and research system is becoming more and more perfect, and the later "economic model analysis system" is basically fully formed during this period. 3. Entered the web3 industry to work. Being a user is completely different from a practitioner, and I have access to information that is completely impossible for ordinary users to obtain.   On the first point, a brief example. When Blast was first launched, I bought 3 NFTs of a racing game (I can't remember the name) at an average price of 0.4ETH each (the price was about 10,000 yuan at the time), and sold them at 0.66ETH, which I would not consider if I could only have a principal investment of 2,000 yuan, but now I will participate, because the 50% income is already considerable. The second point is the essence of my whole thinking system, and it is also the main guiding ideology of the source of my investment income in the second half of the year, through such an economic model analysis system, I can find thousands of tokens that can be invested in the long term (I don't play contracts, and I rarely operate in the short term). Here's a graph of the average cost of my major assets at that time. Those familiar with my economic modelling system know that I use Curve as a benchmark for long-term sustainable economic models, and I have also taken a heavy position in Curve and made significant gains (this was the case last year, don't take a chance). As for the third point, it should not be said in the open media, and it can be shared in the future.   In December last year, because I was born in economics, at this time, from the macroeconomic level, from the technical side, and from the communication with some high-level friends in the industry, I guessed that the market had peaked, and I liquidated all my assets and held USDT, and my position has never exceeded 20% since then.   At this time, my assets just reached 1 million. Later, there was a retracement due to volatility, but not much.   Summary and future investment planning Objectively speaking, I have a lot of talent and hard enough to learn new things, which is the origin of my first pot of gold. Macroeconomic skills, more comprehensive information sources, technical knowledge learning and restraining greed and timely liquidation are the reasons for the success of my subsequent investment. One more word here, whether I listen to you or not: for users who open contracts, I still don't open contracts, if you don't have my economic skills, information sources, understanding and mentality of the underlying technology of the blockchain, why do you think you can make money by opening contracts?   Follow-up investment: I will find a suitable time, such as re-entering the market when the tariffs are completely implemented, or when they fall low enough. Due to the increase in the amount of funds, I will put 60% of my funds on mainstream coins such as Bitcoin and ETH and SOL, 20% of my funds will be placed on suitable large-cap altcoins using my economic model analysis system, 10% will continue to seek on-chain opportunities like before, and finally leave 10% short positions on standby. I don't think it's conservative, but after a year of baptism, the mountains are still the precipitation of the mountains.   Other follow-up plans: The one-year precipitation is not only in terms of funds, but also in the continuous learning of web3 technical knowledge, which has gradually made me stand out in the web3 industry and has more non-transactional means of profit. As the ecological niche gets higher, your means of profit will become more and more diversified. For example, if Changpeng Zhao wants to make money, he doesn't need any transactions, he just needs to call orders on Twitter to ship. USDT wants to make money, and it doesn't need any trading, just by putting everyone's dollars in a foolproof place like U.S. Treasury bonds to eat interest, you can earn nearly 100 billion RMB a year.   In addition, I hope to use my investment experience and experience to help more people, but I am not a saint, and I still think about myself, the reason is simple: this can make me more influential, and the industry is better, I can be better.