Three Ignition Points Boost Altcoin ETFs, Will Usher in Crypto "ETF Summer" in the Second Half of 2025?

Author: Fairy, ChainCatcher

Editors: TB, ChainCatcher

Bitcoin ETFs ignited last spring, and the "crypto ETF summer" is poised to hit in the second half of this year.

With altcoin ETFs such as SOL, XRP, DOGE waiting in line for SEC approval, the number of crypto spot ETFs submitted exceeded 70. At present, the Solana pledged ETF has been successfully launched, Trump's group is promoting a "crypto blue-chip portfolio" ETF, and the US SEC is formulating unified listing rules or preparing for centralized release.

Unlike the 2020 on-chain experiment DeFi Summer, this time the "ETF Summer" comes from Wall Street and Congress.

The three flashpoints of "ETF Summer": Trump, General Criteria, and staking ETFs

The wave of Bitcoin spot ETFs that started last year is far from over.

Among the 2,000 funds owned by BlackRock, the world's largest asset management giant, the Bitcoin spot ETF $IBIT, launched in early 2024, has jumped to the third place in expected annual returns, behind the IWF, which tracks the 1,000 largest growth companies in the United States by market capitalization, and the EFA, which covers developed market stocks outside the United States and Canada.

Picture: Eric Balchunas

The success of Bitcoin ETFs has sounded a huge gong, and the battlefield of crypto ETFs has also shifted from a single point breakthrough to a full-scale rollout.

James Seyffart, an analyst at Bloomberg ETF, recently predicted that the second half of 2025 will usher in a new wave of ETF approvals: LTC, SOL, and XRP have a 95% chance of approval, and DOGE, HBAR, Cardano, Polkadot, and Avalanche are expected to pass with a 90% chance of passing.

Credit: James Seyffart

It's worth noting that the review deadline for these altcoin ETFs is mostly focused on the fourth quarter of this year. Once approved in batches, the crypto market will usher in an "ETF Summer". At present, the three major ignition points driving this wave have begun to emerge.

The first ignition point: Trump's entry into the game, political capital boosts crypto ETFs

Trump has written "crypto" into his political playbook, playing a "crypto combination punch", from crypto projects WLFI, meme coins, stablecoins to crypto ETFs, all-out attacks.

In March, Trump's Media Tech Group signed a binding partnership agreement with crypto trading platform Crypto.com and asset management company Yorkville America Digital to launch a series of crypto ETFs through its brand Truth.Fi.

In the months that followed, the Trump camp struck intensively:

On June 3, Truth Social submitted an application for a Bitcoin ETF;
On June 16, Truth Social submitted an application for a Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF with a holding structure of 75% Bitcoin and 25% Ethereum.
On July 8, Truth Social applied for a "blue-chip crypto ETF" with Bitcoin (70%), Ethereum (15%), Solana (8%), Cronos (5%) and XRP (2%).

Such a high-frequency ETF application rhythm has undoubtedly lit the first fire for crypto ETFs.

The second ignition point: the SEC formulates general listing standards, or it may become an "accelerator key" for approval

With the number of applications for crypto ETFs surging, the U.S. SEC is considering a faster approval framework. Crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett revealed last week that the SEC is working on a common listing standard for crypto ETFs, with the aim of significantly speeding up the listing process for these funds.

According to the preliminary proposal, if the token meets the criteria, the issuer will not need to go through the lengthy 19b-4 approval process, and will only need to submit S-1 documents and wait for 75 days. Inclusion criteria in the discussion may include metrics such as market capitalization, degree of decentralization, and wallet distribution.

Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, said: "It makes perfect sense for the SEC to start developing a common listing standard, which is why we are optimistic about the 95% probability of approval for most major currencies. We expect these rules to be lenient enough that most of the top 50 currencies will be able to issue ETFs without any problems. ”

James Seyffart, another Bloomberg analyst, predicts that the draft framework could be available as soon as this month, with the expected formal implementation in September or October.

If this framework is successfully introduced, it is very likely to open the floodgates of crypto ETF approval, and it also means that the SEC has taken a key step in the regulation of crypto assets.

The third ignition point: staking ETFs break the ice, and the on-chain income is in line with the traditional market

Ethereum-staking ETFs have been the focus of high market attention. Since February this year, 21Shares, Grayscale, Fidelity, Bitwise, Franklin and many other institutions have successively submitted applications to the SEC to include spot Ethereum ETFs in the staking mechanism. However, so far, the proposal has not been approved.

While waiting, an "unexpected soldier" took the lead in breaking the game: on July 2, the first Solana staking ETF in the United States (REX-Osprey Solana + Staking ETF, trading symbol $SSK) was officially launched for trading. The ETF is designed to track Solana's performance while generating yield through on-chain staking.

It operates as a Class C company, circumventing regulatory difficulties related to staking and providing investors with a way to earn staking income in compliance. On its first day of trading, SSK traded $33.914 million, far outperforming the average performance of Solana Futures ETF and XRP Futures ETF, as well as regular ETFs, but below the trading volume levels of Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs.

The launch of this ETF marks a breakthrough in both regulatory and product structure, and may trigger a wave of PoS pledged ETF declarations.

The three major ignition points are intertwined and converged, and the crypto "ETF Summer" is gradually showing its initial state. With the wave of currency and stock linkage, there may be more innovative ways to play.