Tomorrow $XPL goes live with almost poetic timing (Tether raising $20B at a $500B valuation, lots of onchain runners, and speculative capital apeing into new launches despite a shaky broader market.) I think Plasma has a chance to be a massive cook. Let me break down why I believe this (in a very left-curve, nihilistic way): First, there is no realistic way to justify its current valuation (7B FDV, ~1.25B circulating) given there is no live product or adoption. Yes, there is a slick prelaunch product video, tons of day-1 TVL (study $BERA), and the neobank vision. But that is exactly the kind of story the market loves to attach itself to - the biggest TAM in crypto, all dollars in the world, #stablecoins. Even though presalers in from 500M FDV are already sitting on ~14x at current pre-market levels, there is a decent chance the market frames Plasma as a long-tail way to get exposure to Tether, which is quickly becoming one of the world’s most valuable companies. In that sense, a 1.25B circulating valuation at launch does not feel insane. Look at the other “Tether chain,” $STBL. It's up ~3x since TGE to 230M circ and 4.6B FDV. But STBL feels like the weaker bet (less exciting go-to-market, weaker branding, and the team does not seem to have the same pull/connections). The BSC/Paolo angles could still push it higher, but compared to Plasma it looks like the discount knockoff. That said, I would not advocate for a long XPL, short STBL pair trade, but from an observer POV, Plasma feels much more legitimate: - Founders Fund (Peter Thiel) backed - Tether (Paolo, USDT CEO) backed - Extremely clean website and branding (more important than you think) - Impressive GTM - Every KOL on Twitter tweeting “trillions” - Founder is also chairman of a publicly traded company with a very nice chart, $ATAI. (Respect the pump) And finally, fate loves irony. In premarket trading, XPL wicked up to ~18.5B on Hyperliquid, the highest-volume premarket yet, blowing out most shorts. Most of whom were likely early investors and employees hedging allocations ("lol wtf, I’m rich now and I’m not gambling on my allo still being worth this much when unlocks hit”). Now, if they want to hedge, they will need to reshort, probably after presalers take some gains of the table. This could set the stage for market makers to hunt them again and squeeze it higher (only for them to be unhedged before it slowly bleeds down into their vesting ofc). Add in the fact that recent launches, especially those listed on Binance, have traded extremely well, and that everyone’s first instinct will be to short Plasma as “overvalued governance for another L1 where the token is not even used for gas”… Trillions?