➥ Honestly, I think people are still underestimating what programmable data infra could do Most conversations around Irys right now focus on the opening FDV multiple. That’s important, but it may also be missing the bigger picture. > What really sets FDV at launch? When a project launches its token (TGE), the fully diluted value (FDV) depends mainly on three things: • How many tokens are unlocked at the start (the float). • How big the valuation is compared to the money already raised (funding multiple). • Where the token lists and how strong the market makers are (liquidity support). It’s less about “how good the tech is” and more about how these levers are set. > Funding multiple as a baseline Irys has raised about $20M. Most infrastructure projects that raise in the $15–25M range launch at 2–6x their funding. That means a normal FDV range would be $40M–120M. So unless @irys_xyz aims for a very aggressive launch, the natural bracket is already in that 60–120M zone. > What...
been using @Surf_Copilot a lot to figure out what AI thinks of my TGE bags in 2025 and how well some of my projects will do in terms of expected opening FDV's @ TGE (no im not gonna do boost for legal reasons hehe)
i agree with almost all of the evaluations ive seen so far, but the one that surf gives for @irys_xyz is the most interesting one i've seen so far
with $20M raised, good PoW tech and aiming to be THE player in datachains, i expected $IRYS to target somewhere around 200-300M FDV on open
surf however, through very very smart AI analysis, targetted an evaluation somewhere between 60-120M FDV if Irys were to TGE in september
do we agree or disagree with that?
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