Global Geopolitical Events Summary for July 23:
1. Poland urges its citizens to leave Russia as soon as possible.
2. The Israeli Foreign Minister arrives in Ukraine to meet with Zelensky and the Ukrainian Foreign Minister.
3. Protests erupt in multiple locations in Ukraine against Zelensky's weakening of legislative and anti-corruption institutions.
4. Trump states that in a few months, the number of missiles and weapons in the U.S. will surpass that of any other country in the world.
5. The UAE sends the largest-ever aid team to the Gaza Strip, including a large amount of supplies and rescue equipment.
6. Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have officially begun in Istanbul, with both sides presenting their conditions. Turkey has also proposed humanitarian mediation, but based on the conditions presented by both sides, it seems very difficult to reach an agreement.
Assessment:
There is currently no escalation in geopolitical risks, but the prospects for Russia-Ukraine peace talks are slim. This week, we will have to see the specific news from the UK, France, Germany, and Iran in Istanbul.
Global Market Dynamics on July 23:
1. Gold and the US dollar both fell, as the easing of trade tensions led to a decrease in safe-haven demand, causing both to weaken.
2. International crude oil prices remain stable around $68, maintaining relative resilience. If the US and Europe continue to impose secondary tariffs on Russian energy, energy prices are unlikely to drop in the short term.
3. The decline in relative safe-haven sentiment is associated with a decrease in demand for the dollar, leading to an increase in US long-term bond yields, with long bond prices slightly falling and demand weakening.
4. The easing of trade tensions has triggered a rise in the stock market; however, with Tesla and Google's earnings reports due to be released after the market closes today, the stock market will remain relatively cautious even with the trade easing.
5. The VIX index continues to fall to around 15.5, reaching a new low since February 1, 2025.
Assessment:
The signing of the US-Japan trade agreement has led to market expectations that US-EU trade tensions will ease, reducing global market safe-haven sentiment and increasing risk sentiment, resulting in a relatively normal trend.
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