Still comfortable sitting relatively long here. While things are getting frothier overall, coins don’t look locally/globally topped to me and actually still relatively healthy across the board: - Funding is quite tame (majors 10-15%; HL reset on the downticks this afternoon). There are, of course, a lot more DN funds in the space keeping this in line but that was also true in Dec/Jan, and we got to 40-60+% then. - We’re 11 days into the BTC ATH break, and risk-on seasons typically run at least 4-6 weeks. This is a very weak one so far as we’re consolidating ~5% above the previous ATH level; the 80k OTC whale is mostly to blame for this. - Crypto treasury companies (CTCs/TCs) are still fresh for now and able to launch at decent mNAVs (2-3x). Some older names are compressing closer to 1-1.5x, but until we see a good chunk trade below par and newer launches immediately fail out the gate, the flywheel still has room to spin. - OTHERS nowhere near the Dec/Jan highs and still 15% off from the 24Q1 top. OTHERS/BTC is still at May/April levels from this year. - OTHERS OI still ~4-5% away from flipping BTC's OI. Additionally, once the market fully digests the OTC whale's flow, I expect BTC OI to get added aggressively on a move from mid-110s to 125-130, which should extend this current regime. The typical rolling down the risk curve model is obviously broken--BTC gains don’t translate into ETH/SOL gains. However, I believe that ETH/SOL gains do translate into alt gains, based on the type of participant that holds these in lieu of BTC (whether via ETFs/MSTR). This is starting to play out with OTHERS finally clearing 290-300bn. While we bottomed ~4 weeks ago in OTHERS, we’ve only really broken out of the March - June range on the day of BTC ATH break (July 10). With that said, CTCs have very clearly changed how this breakout is working. Some core differences I have noticed/adjustments I have made: - The CTC bid is price-insensitive, which means traditional support/resistance metrics do not work--see ETH blasting through 3300 and 3550. - CTCs rely on the flywheel of three Vs: Volume, Volatility, and Very-high-mNAV. Only CTCs that can accomplish all 3 are able to make a meaningful impact on the underlying coin. For now, that means only SOL and ETH are biddable in this narrative, with DOGE and XRP plausible contenders. - While some TCs are more traditional (MSTR, 3350) in how they view execution (long-term players looking to maximize BTC/sh), other TCs are more mercenary (exit liquidity for alts, such as the TAO/FET/ENA TCs, possibly even buying locked tokens) or even actively adversarial (h/t Giver on this realization). - Similar to 24Q4, the type of participant making money on this move is in ETFs (ETHA, ETHE) or the TCs (SBET/DFDV). This cohort is not rolling their PNL down the risk curve. However, natives also hold extensive amounts of ETH and SOL. While many CT-adjacent players were late/sidelined to this leg up, as they capitulate, get long, and hopefully ride the rising tide of the CTC bid, once they profit sufficiently, that PNL will come back to alts. IMHO alts will get bid - it will just take more time than longer, which actually extends the length of the cycle. I am long, in roughly decreasing size, ETH, SOL, XRP, PEPE, DOGE, TRUMP.