It's been a long time since we talked about macroeconomics, and with Trump in the picture, many people say macro is no longer important.
Two aspects:
1. Since Trump was elected last year, from the meme and billboard killer incidents to the recent Great American Rescue Plan, there have been repeated events that have drained the energy of Trump trading. In the end, after all the noise, we still have to return to macro.
2. Those who have been in the circle for a while have taken the bull market after the pandemic and the Fed's massive monetary easing (after March 2020) as the standard expectation for a bull market.
BTC leads the charge, ETH follows suit, and altcoins are blooming in a competitive frenzy, with new coins being launched left and right. However, the current macroeconomic environment is completely different from back then; the 2020 bull market was not the norm but rather an unprecedented wave of liquidity that occurs once in a decade or even several decades.
Now, with interest rates this high, to push BTC back into a bull run above 100k, interest rates would need to return to the 2.5-3% level for that to be possible.
So currently, if there are no expectations of interest rate cuts, the 100-108k range is very
It's hard to maintain. The biggest narrative right now is the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year. Recently, there have been whispers that the next Federal Reserve chair might be a bit dovish. Other than that, there are no substantial driving forces.
But we also see that the broad M2 is increasing; can you say this is purely tightening? So BTC can still be expected to reach 120k, which is a 20% increase.
And what about altcoins? There is absolutely no possibility of a widespread increase.
Recognize the larger environment, cherish your fiat currency, and stay away from altcoins.
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