$IREN = Dilution
$IREN needs several billions to develop the Sweetwater data center
They hold $200M in cash
Anyone valuing this company based on this data center capacity is valuing something that doesn’t exist
OCF + proceeds from Bitcoin – depreciation comes out to $46M
That’d be the net cash generated per quarter at a maintenance level
Long way to reach the funding needed
Horizon 1 still requires lots of CapEx and will be only 50 MW
This company realistically has enough money to complete Horizon 1 and that’s it
$APLD is going to make $466M in revenue yearly for 250 MW of capacity contracted by $CRWV
If $BTC stays at this range, $IREN could be making ~$120M in adjusted operational maintenance free cash flow by next year
Now trades at 26x that
Fair value if you’re neutral or bullish on $BTC
Apart from that, it’s dilution or debt. And at a $3.1B valuation, it wouldn’t be pretty
This company is already issuing shares like there’s no tomorrow
That’s why it’s underperforming $BTC by 49 percentage points in the last year




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