Per @zerohedge, the latest data shows the largest monthly reduction in Social Security payments in history. Is this correct? There is some seasonality in the data - mostly Decembers - but not enough to explain this drop. There are other moving pieces with the timing of payments, but at first glance not enough to explain a decline of this magnitude. *If* this drop is real and sustained, then it is super important and suggests that DOGE was actually quite successful at reducing entitlement fraud and waste. Really good for the deficit, rates and 🇺🇸 Someone close to me had their identity stolen and their social security number has been used for the last 2 years to collect various benefits in another state that is literally thousands of miles away. They have received countless letters from the IRS about this, but the government has been unable to stop this fraud. The first letter essentially accused the person close to me of committing fraud, the second letter acknowledged that the person close to me had been the victim of identity theft and that someone else was defrauding the government and then there have been regular letters essentially saying that the benefits fraud in the other state is continuing. For the sake of clarity, the Federal government knows that someone is illegally collecting benefits in another state using this persons social security number and has been unable to stop it. While I was fully cognizant of the dangers of drawing any conclusion from a single anecdote in a country of 400 million, it did seem at least possible to me that: 1) There might be some amount of entitlement fraud, 2) that modernizing all of the government databases (Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Unemployment Benefits) and 3) then checking them against each other might yield significant savings. And all Americans should hope for this outcome from DOGE. The 1990s were great because of the internet and the “peace dividend” that helped Clinton balance the budget (note that Federal government spending as a % of GDP at the end of his administration was roughly 18% vs. the end of the Biden administration circa 24%). Would be great if the next decade were driven by AI and the “DOGE dividend.”