Cooked up a weekly outlook for you nerds gonna be doing more of these in a new project, so keep an eye out Weekly Outlook FOMC on Wed extra expectations around rates cuts probably give us volatility to trade Macro I expect BTC to trade higher, just a question of when Two main scenarios: (1) trade up from this range or (2) trade down into 90s or 80s then up it's a coin flip — structure says up, seasonality says chop the play is to be spot long BTC if we dip down, I’ll put on more risk acceptance above 108k is a major sign BTC breaks up from here reading too much into geopolitical stuff usually hurts my trading — it’ll likely blow over the market response to news matters more than the news itself and it looks like the market shrugged it off, which is bullish we're in the late stages of this multi-year trend so there's probably only one major leg up left keep this in mind so you take profits whenever the leg comes Levels 103k — local support 108k — local resistance 100k — macro support 120k — macro resistance (remember: obvious levels like this often get frontrun) VWAPs price and value on the quarterly VWAP has converged, which is a good reset bullish above qVWAP VAH around 106.2k if we accept below that, target the qVWAP in mid 90s Medium timeframe looks bullish — we put in a lower high, but also a higher low in face of FUD local market structure showing compression pattern it looks bullish, but not as bullish as the classic meme triangle pattern with equal highs and higher lows 30-day rolling VWAP: looks like a common pattern is playing out similar to April — price gets above it, reclaim fails and price breaks below, then real acceptance above price has reclaimed all local anchored VWAPs, which is bullish only bearish argument on MTF — we're at the place where momentum loss would be most likely TLDR; if bulls get above 107k-109k, we’ll be off to the races and I’ll be very aggressive about buying dips Positioning fully spot long BTC, no hedge sold more alts, especially memes, into BTC last week Alts Interested in successful layer 1s, large cap memes, and an RWA or AI play — HYPE SOL FARTCOIN PEPE PENDLE Memes like DOGE and BONK relatively very weak against BTC, but they'll likely have their day Sentiment on alts is bad and BTC likely trades higher, which creates a situation for a lot of people to be caught off guard Modern alt season: BTC puts in major leg up, a handful of the strongest coins go with it (e.g. HYPE), then the rest follow once BTC first starts cooling off If you enjoy this style of analysis give a like and keep and eye out for official version coming soon Shoutout to Bennu for writing these