Why does this matter?
Because LTV is a snapshot of collateral coverage, not risk behavior. Two users can have identical LTVs but vastly different risk profiles:
> User A: Borrows USDe against $HYPE, then lends it for 6% yield. Safe, predictable, low-volatility.
> User B: Borrows USDe against $HYPE, buys a memecoin, which could go to zero overnight.
Both have a 50% LTV. But only one is a latent liquidation risk when markets turn.
Why this matters structurally:
Volatility Clustering: If multiple users borrow to ape into volatile assets, you get correlated liquidation cascades. This isn’t visible via LTV alone.
Credit Tranching: Just like CLOs, DeFi protocols should be segmenting risk based on usage of borrowed funds, not just collateral posted.
Risk Pricing: If a protocol can’t differentiate between safe and speculative borrowers, it can’t price risk or set appropriate rates. That’s why 90% of DeFi lending still prices like junk bonds across the board.
Systemic Stability: In the next leg up, the protocols that can underwrite usage-level behavior will be the ones that don’t blow up on the way down.
So yes, LTV is necessary but not sufficient.
We need to underwrite collateral and behavior. And right now, most of DeFi is just doing collateral.
Loan-to-value (LTV) ratio's are great but they don’t tell you how borrowed assets are actually used.
The guy who lends $HYPE on Felix, borrows USDe, and buys $BUDDY on KittenSwap is playing a very different game than the one who borrows USDe just to loop it into a stablecoin yield vault.
I want to start seeing this behavior. Once we can trace use-of-proceeds, DeFi lending pools should adopt CLO-style tranching:
> BBB: leveraged meme buys ($HYPE → USDe → $BUDDY)
> A: directional trades on majors ($HYPE → USDe → BTC)
> AAA: stables loopers farming yield ($HYPE → USDe → lend USDe)
These users might still have the same LTV ratios, but the risk they are taking is very different and should be priced/valued differently.
Unfortunately, most teams in DeFi still don’t understand credit. But @KaminoFinance and @felixprotocol I think are starting to think about risk in this way and I am all for it.
ChatGPT did an OK job creating this visual.
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