Core of Making Money: How Retail Investors Quickly Judge Market Trends The trends in the crypto market follow a logic that can be traced. Although precise guidance is not possible, the general direction and range can be completely determined. Conditional logic is what I think is most suitable for everyone! All rising and falling trends are the result of conditions converging. Large conditions accumulate into large trends, and stage conditions accumulate into stage trends. Bull Market OR Bear Market Judgment Core Combination: Macro conditions + narrative conditions + emotional conditions + technical conditions + on-chain conditions + celebrity conditions The above six conditions are the logical core for judging major trends. The more conditions converge, the stronger the certainty, and vice versa. 1. Macro Conditions: Liquidity aspect (interest rate hikes, cuts, ETFs, etc.), policy aspect (for project parties, exchanges, fund policies, etc.), US debt, US dollar index, US stock indicators 2. Narrative Conditions: 1. External narrative: AI, Metaverse, IoT, WEB3, RWA, etc. 2. Industry narrative: such as Ethereum narrative (technology and ecosystem), Bitcoin narrative (halving event, inscription concept promotion, etc.), the core path to promote industry development (technology + users). 3. Emotional Conditions: Market retail investor sentiment: through fear and greed index, various community sentiments, KOL sentiment, hot coin sentiment (exchange crazily listing hot coins OR not listing new ones for a long time) External media and retail investor sentiment: If external media frequently report on Bitcoin and the wealth effect of the crypto circle, it is generally stage-based or at the bull market peak stage. 4. Technical Conditions 1. Small cycle, large cycle K-line trend, combined with several core indicators (MACD, BOLL, etc.) 5. On-Chain Conditions 1. Bitcoin's medium-term, long-term chip on-chain status, such as whether medium and long-term holders are continuously increasing or decreasing, and some core on-chain indicators 2. Medium and large whale holders entering during the bear market, if they massively reduce holdings in the bull market, and retail addresses massively increase, it is also one of the signals of stage or bull peak. 6. Celebrity Conditions 1. Celebrity statements: domestic and foreign industry OGs, such as Cathie Wood, Charlie Lee, Bobby Lee, CZ, core analysts of large blockchain institutions, 2. Celebrity indicators: Jiushen, Jiang Zhuoer 60-day, rainbow chart, altcoin index, and some indicators from foreign friends, etc. *Important condition for bear market bottom reference one: Bitcoin mining shutdown price Mainstream mining machines gradually shut down, coin price approaches mainstream mining shutdown price, current shutdown price is 18,000 to 20,000 USD *Important condition for bear market bottom reference two: Exchange status Negative news from exchanges (policy, hacking, technology, etc.) Summary: Combining six conditions: 1. The more favorable conditions or expected conditions accumulate, the more certain the bull market becomes, 2. The fewer favorable conditions, and expected conditions gradually realize, it is generally at the bull market end stage. 3. The more negative conditions gradually increase, and expected negative conditions appear, it is generally entering the bear market cycle. Stage trends are also like this, need to combine recent favorable or negative conditions, and then make a comprehensive judgment. Example: Talk about this round of bull market trend, current market status Technical conditions: Monthly line has been in an upward trend since January 2023, and has been in a continuous positive line for the last 5 months Macro conditions: ETF favorable conditions gradually landing, latest by March Narrative conditions: Cancun upgrade ends around February, Bitcoin halving in April Emotional conditions: Inside the market has been in a high greed index range, and has lasted for a while, outside sentiment is not obviously hot On-chain conditions: Data has not changed much, Celebrity conditions: Some blockchain institution OGs judge a pullback Summary: Short-term stage favorable conditions are landing one by one, April halving is the last one, personally, I think there might be a pullback around March, mid to late February, but since it is a bull market cycle, we need to maintain a long-term mindset, only buy and not sell, patiently wait for the last replenishment opportunity to appear, remember the real trend comes, it does not end in one or two days, whether it is a pullback or rise, patience is most important. Welcome everyone to like and bookmark! I think this logic is suitable for anyone!