Virtuality Lab price

TL，DR Macro data showed that U.S. inflation is showing signs of easing but still above the Fed's target, the labor market is generally solid, consumer spending is slowing due to high interest rates, and the Fed is keeping interest rates unchanged and cautious about cutting rates. At the same time, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has exacerbated market volatility, and although there is a temporary boost from the resumption of economic and trade dialogue between China and the United States, the global economic outlook is under pressure, and the future market trend will be affected by the expectation of interest rate cuts and changes in the international situation. The overall trading volume of the crypto market is active but the momentum is weakening, and funds tend to be cautious due to geopolitical risks; The market capitalization fell by 4.03% month-on-month, and the focus of funds returned significantly to BTC, and ETH and stablecoins performed steadily. Most of the newly listed tokens are concentrated in the DeFi and Layer 1 tracks, VC-backed projects are still dominant, and hot spots are still dominated by emotions. Bitcoin spot ETFs still saw net inflows of $1.13 billion, while Ethereum saw a net outflow of about $80 million due to a larger price decline, reflecting increased short-term risk aversion, despite geopolitical risks and the Fed's hawkish stance weighing on sentiment and both Bitcoin and Ethereum price retreats. At the same time, the stablecoin market continued to expand, driven by stablecoin legislation and the favorable listing of Circle, with overall circulating volume increasing by about $4.17 billion in June. On June 22, after Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, Bitcoin rebounded strongly above $108, 000, and the ETF sequential net inflows reflected institutional bullish sentiment, with technicals showing bulls regaining control of the rhythm and challenging the all-time high of $111, 980 in the short term. Ethereum and Solana also rebounded synchronously, and if the key moving average resistance is broken through, it is expected to open up further upside, otherwise, if it is blocked to the downside, it may return to the shock adjustment pattern. Circle's successful IPO and the passage of the GENIUS Act have led to the strengthening of the stablecoin sector, but its valuation is highly dependent on spread income, and its subsequent sustainability remains to be seen. Virtual exploded in the Base ecosystem with its innovative new mechanism, and early users made significant profits, but after the "green lock mechanism" restricted liquidity, the popularity ebbed, and the token price retraced by more than 30% from the high. Pumpfun's $4 billion token auction has been postponed again, and the market is still divided on whether it can bring a structural breakthrough due to a crisis of trust in the platform and ecological doubts. Coinbase promotes the integration of the Base chain and the main application, and JPMorgan Chase pilots the "deposit token" JPMD, marking the acceleration of the layout of the on-chain US dollar and compliant stablecoin track by traditional institutions and centralized platforms. 1. Macro perspective 1. Inflation trend CPI data for June 2025 showed that inflation growth slowed to 3.3%, unchanged from the previous month, and core CPI grew by 3.4% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. While inflationary pressures have eased, the Fed still believes that the current level of inflation is on the high side, far from the 2% target. As economic data accumulates further, the Fed remains cautious, emphasizing the need for more positive data to support the decision to cut interest rates. 2. Labor market The U.S. labor market remained solid, with the unemployment rate edging up to 4.5%, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 4.4%. Although the unemployment rate has risen, it remains relatively low, reflecting the stability of the labor market. Retail sales fell 0.9% month-on-month, the biggest drop in four months, especially as consumer spending was significantly subdued amid high interest rates and underlying inflationary pressures, especially for durable and high-priced goods. 3. Monetary policy dynamics The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% at its June meeting, the fourth consecutive time it has left rates unchanged. While the Fed expects two possible rate cuts by the end of 2025, it remains highly vigilant about inflation risks. The dot plot shows that there are still expectations of a rate cut in the second quarter of 2025, but there is a growing divergence on the future path of monetary policy, reflecting a divergent view within the Fed on the timing of the rate cut. 4. Trade policy and global economic outlook Global markets fell significantly in June due to the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve. Israel's airstrikes on Iran sparked panic in the market, and the U.S. stock market came under pressure in the short term. At the same time, the news of the resumption of economic and trade talks between the United States and China in London once boosted market risk sentiment, but the escalation of geopolitical conflicts quickly shattered the calm of the market. With the global economic outlook under pressure, investors' risk appetite has generally declined. 5. Summary Macro data for June suggests that the U.S. economy is still facing strong inflationary pressures, with overall growth expectations downgraded and the Federal Reserve cautious about cutting interest rates, although some inflation indicators have slowed. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has had a great impact on market sentiment, which has intensified in the short term, but has picked up as the international situation eases and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations rise. It is expected that in the coming months, the Fed may start a cycle of interest rate cuts supported by data, but it also needs to be wary of the continued impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the market. 2. Overview of the crypto market Currency data analysis Trading volume & daily growth rate According to CoinGecko data, as of June 25, the average daily trading volume of the crypto market was about $107.7 billion, down 6.6% from the previous cycle. During the period, the trading volume showed a "high-fall" trend many times, with a single-day rise and fall of more than 10%, of which the peak trading volume was recorded on June 13, reaching $167.9 billion, and there were also many sharp pullbacks. On the whole, although the market still maintains a certain degree of activity, the capital momentum has weakened compared with the previous period, affected by uncertain factors such as geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, market funds tend to be cautious in late June, and risk appetite has fallen. Market capitalization > daily growth According to CoinGecko data, the total crypto market capitalization slipped to $3.40 trillion as of June 25, down 4.03% from the previous month. Among them, the market share of BTC rose to 64.8%, and the market share of ETH was 9.0%, and the market center of gravity has obviously returned to BTC. In terms of overall structure, BTC is still dominant, ETH and stablecoins are relatively stable, while short-term hot sectors mostly rely on emotional speculation and lack sustainable support, making it difficult to form long-term incremental momentum. New hot tokens in June Among the newly launched popular tokens in June, relying on the Binance Alpha listing route, VC background projects are still dominant, and the popular tracks focus on DeFi and Layer 1, among which DeFi projects - SPK, RESOLV, HOME, etc. have received wide attention from the market. 3. On-chain data analysis 3.1 Analysis of inflows and outflows of BTC AND ETH ETF BTC ETF inflows of $1.13 billion in June In June, the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East + the impact of the Fed's "hawkish" stance led to lower market risk appetite, and the Bitcoin market sentiment came under pressure, and the price showed a volatile downward trend. The price of Bitcoin fell from $105, 649 to $100, 987, a decrease of about 4.41%. Although the subsequent temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel led to a price correction, the market remains under the influence of war risks. Bitcoin spot ETFs continued to see net inflows, reflecting traditional investors' confidence in long-term value, with cumulative net inflows of about $1.13 billion in June. The ETH ETF saw an outflow of $80 million in June As for Ethereum, the price fell even more significantly after the impact of the war. The price of ETH fell by 12.1% to $2,228 from $2,536 at the beginning of the month. Correspondingly, there was a net outflow of funds from Ethereum spot ETFs, indicating a rise in short-term risk aversion, with a cumulative net outflow of about $80 million in June. 3.2 Analysis of stablecoin inflows and outflows Stablecoin inflows in June were about $100 million – with the majority of inflows coming from USDT and USDC In June, the stablecoin market continued its strong growth momentum as the stablecoin bill and the positive news about Circle's U.S. stock listing continued. Among them, USDT, USDE, USDC became the main drivers of growth this month, and the total circulation of stablecoins increased by about $4.17 billion. Fourth, the price analysis of mainstream currencies 4.1 BTC Price Change Analysis Bitcoin's rally, which began on June 22, was prompted by the news that US President Donald Trump announced a "total ceasefire" between Israel and Iran, and the price quickly broke above $108, 000, showing continued strong bull buying. Despite the recent rise in geopolitical risks, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded net inflows for 11 consecutive days, indicating that institutional investor sentiment remains positive. Bitcoin is currently on track to challenge the all-time high of $111, 980. However, in the absence of new catalysts, prices are likely to remain range-bound. Bitcoin rebounded strongly from $100, 000 on June 22 and broke above all major moving averages, showing strong buying at the low levels. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) has now started to move upwards and the RSI indicator has also entered positive territory, suggesting that the bulls are regaining control of the market rhythm. In the short term, the bears may build a line of defense between the descending trend line to $111, 980. If the price finds resistance in this area but is able to find support near the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bulls are buying on dips, followed by another breakout attempt. Conversely, if the price breaks below the MA support, the BTC/USDT pair may continue to trade in the range of $98, 200 to $111, 980. 4.2 ETH Price Change Analysis Ethereum rebounded from $2, 111 on June 22 and hit the 20-day EMA ($2, 473) on June 24. At present, the 20-day EMA tends to flatten, and the RSI is also close to the central axis position, indicating that the market bullish and bearish forces are temporarily in equilibrium. A break above the moving averages could open the way for the upside, targeting the resistance levels of $2, 738 and $2, 879. Conversely, if the price is blocked near the 20-day EMA and falls below $2, 323, it means that the bears continue to put pressure on the rally, at which point the ETH/USDT pair could once again test the key support at $2, 111. 4.3 SOL Price Change Analysis Solana rebounded from $126 on June 22 and broke through the key $140 drop on June 24. The current rally has met resistance near the 20-day EMA ($147), but the positive sign is that the bulls have managed to hold the $140 mark. If the pullback is limited, the market is expected to try to break above the 20-day EMA, and once it gains ground, the SOL/USDT pair could further test the $160 level where the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is located. If the bears manage to push the price back below $140, it could trigger a further pullback, with support seen at $123 or even $110. 5. Hot events of the month 1. The listing of Circle sparked a boom in the concept of stablecoins Circle Internet Group, the parent company of stablecoin issuer Circle, successfully listed on the New York Stock Exchange on June 5, and its share price rose 861% from its opening price of $31 to its highest point of $298, giving it a market capitalization of about $76 billion. Subsequently, because Cathie Wood's ARK fund quickly reduced its holdings of about 1.5 million shares and cashed out more than $330 million after the IPO, its price fell to $198 as of June 26, with a market value of about $50.6 billion. At its peak, Circle's market capitalization has surpassed USDC's actual circulating market capitalization, and its revenue mainly comes from USDC reserve interest, generating a total of $1.6 billion in revenue by the end of 2024, of which Coinbase has taken more than half, becoming Circle's largest source of distribution costs. While the partnership is critical to expanding USDC's reach, the current yield structure also exposes the risk of Circle's over-reliance on spread income, which could squeeze profitability if interest rates fall in the future. But the IPO coincided with the passage of the GENIUS Act by the U.S. Senate, which strengthened policy support for compliant stablecoins and became a catalyst for market hype on the "digital dollar" theme. Overall, Circle's listing has become an important node in the compliance of the stablecoin industry, and the market has given it a premium as a "digital dollar leader", but whether its long-term valuation can stand firm still depends on its ability to break through the dependence on reserve income and build a sustainable diversified income model. 2. The GENIUS Act is passed, pending the President's signature IN JUNE 2025, THE U.S. SENATE OVERWHELMINGLY PASSED THE GENIUS STABLECOIN BILL (68:30), MARKING A HISTORIC STEP FORWARD IN CRYPTOCURRENCY REGULATION IN THE UNITED STATES. The bill imposes strict compliance requirements on stablecoin issuers, including $1:1 or short-term U.S. Treasury reserves, monthly audits, a ban on interest-bearing stablecoins, and only allowing issuance by bank subsidiaries and federal or specific state-authorized entities. The bill explicitly includes stablecoins in the regulatory scope of the Bank Secrecy Law, establishing the legal status of "digital currency" for them, which is regarded as an important milestone in promoting the mainstream of digital assets. Local platforms such as Circle and Coinbase have become direct beneficiaries, with Circle's market value skyrocketing by 35% after the bill passed, while Tether is facing multiple compliance challenges such as audit qualifications and reserve structure. Although the bill has yet to be voted on by the House of Representatives to be signed by the president, Trump has publicly endorsed it on social media, calling it "the foundation of the digital dollar." Overall, the passage of the GENIUS Act is not only a strategic move by the United States to compete for the dominance of digital currencies, but also may become a bellwether for the global stablecoin regulatory paradigm, the stablecoin market is expected to usher in explosive growth, and the U.S. financial system is also accelerating towards a new era of more digitalization and globalization. 3.Virtual: pumpfun+Bn Alpha new mechanism detonates the market heat This month's Virtual is undoubtedly one of the most talked-about projects in the market recently. With its innovative new launch mechanism, it has quickly attracted a large amount of funds and user participation, and has become the core representative of the current base ecological innovation narrative. THE PRICE OF VIRTUAL HAS RISEN BY 400% FROM $0.5 IN MID-APRIL TO A HIGH OF $2.5 IN EARLY JUNE. The core advantages of Virtual are: Extremely low financing price: Each new project is raised at a market value of 42, 425 virtual ($224,000), so users can participate in financing at a very low price, and the potential profit margin of the project after the launch of the project is huge. Linear token unlocking: Unlike MEME on PumpFun, Virtual's new projects are not unlocked after the market opens, but are unlocked in batches with a transparent token economic model like VC coins. In addition, in order to prevent the project party from smashing the market, the raised funds are not directly handed over to the project party, but are all injected into the initial liquidity pool. Low risk of new projects: If the user participates in the new project and does not succeed in the end, the full amount will be returned to the user, and Virtual only sends a few new projects a day, so the quality is generally higher than that of MEME, and the risk of user participation is very low. Reduce the Rug probability of the project team: Virtual sets a 1% handling fee, of which 70% is returned to the project team, which makes the project team have the incentive to increase transaction activity instead of short-term cash-out, forming a benign ecological closed loop. However, with the rise in popularity of the platform, early users frequently obtain short-term high returns through the strategy of opening and selling, resulting in huge selling pressure on new projects and undermining the stability of the overall ecosystem. To this end, Virtual launched the "Green Lock Mechanism" in mid-June, setting a mandatory lock-up period for new users, during which the obtained tokens cannot be sold, and points accumulation will be suspended if they are violated. Although this mechanism helps to curb early sell-offs and extend the project life cycle, it also significantly changes the original speculative logic. The profit cycle of users is forced to lengthen, the capital efficiency declines, and the market enthusiasm has a phased ebb and flow. Virtual's price entered a downward channel in mid-June, falling back more than 37% from its high to $1.69. 6. Outlook for the next month 1. Pumpfun: $4 billion token auction postponed again The Pumpfun token auction, originally scheduled for the end of June, has been postponed again and is now expected to be postponed to mid-July. This is already a number of postponements since the token offering was first proposed at the end of last year. It is reported that Pumpfun plans to raise $1 billion at a $4 billion valuation (FDV) and plans to airdrop 10% of the tokens for community incentives. Since its launch, Pumpfun has achieved about $700 million in revenue due to its low fees and binding curve mechanism, becoming one of the most profitable projects on the Solana chain, but its ecosystem is facing multiple trust challenges such as the proliferation of bot transactions, the stagnation of product innovation, and the unclear use of funds. In mid-June, the platform and the founder's social account were banned on platform X, which triggered the spread of false news such as "regulatory intervention" and "founder's arrest", which further amplified market doubts. Whether this round of high-valuation financing can bring a structural breakthrough to the Solana ecosystem, or become another capital harvest, is still debated in the market. 2. Coinbase Promotes Base On-Chain Integration, JPMorgan Chase Pilot "Deposit Token" Coinbase has recently pushed for deep integration of the Base chain into its main application, and has now launched Coinbase Verified Pools, which allow KYC users to interact with DApps on Base directly using their Coinbase account balance, without the need for cumbersome wallet switching and on-chain transfer processes, and has announced Uniswap and Aerodrome as its DEX platforms for on-chain transactions. While this feature is still in its early stages, this direction is highly consistent with the current trend of multiple centralized exchanges promoting on-chain and off-chain integration. For example, Binance enables exchange users to directly purchase on-chain tokens through the Alpha system; Bybit launched Byreal to provide its exchange users with DeFi capabilities to trade popular on-chain tokens as well as Solana assets. At present, the one-stop trading experience of centralized exchanges and on-chain transactions has become an important direction for the evolution of the platform. At the same time, JPMorgan Chase & Co. piloted the launch of JPMD, a "deposit token" on the Base chain, as a compliant digital dollar tool for institutions, which is backed by bank deposits and is permission-only. From the perspective of the industry, the combination of Coinbase and Base strengthens its compliance chain positioning and entry-level advantages, and if the application-level integration is realized in the future, it may significantly expand the active user base on the chain. The pilot of JPMorgan Chase reflects the positive impact of the passage of the GENIUS Stablecoin Act, and traditional institutions have begun to deploy the on-chain dollar track on a large scale, which may inject new variables into the competitive landscape of compliant stablecoins in the context of the current trend of gradual policy easing. Both of them can be regarded as important signals under the trend of "centralized institutions and on-chain ecology", and it is worth paying attention to their subsequent large-scale implementation rhythm and policy interaction effect.

For crypto startup teams, the crypto playbook beyond public chain technology and ecosystem support are also important considerations. The ecosystem support needed for crypto projects includes but is not limited to: Fundraising, such as early funding aimed at developers or startup teams, growth funding for multi-chain teams, business incubation, TGE, support from exchanges or other liquidity platforms. Marketing, Media resources, such as social media, news, podcasts, and blog resources of public chains, KOL matrix, specifically referring to public chain OGs rather than agencies. 😅 Events, various types of online and offline activities aimed at users, developers, and holders. Cognition, Guiding the atmosphere of the public chain community, for example, ETH, SOL, APT, and STRK have completely different atmospheres, which will also affect the methods/processes of doing things. Evangelizing the ecosystem and technology, understanding the current state of the ecosystem of this chain, future plans, and key support directions, identifying potential opportunities/narratives, and understanding the technology stack/reserves and existing gaps. For example, what gaps exist in AI, zk, and payment aspects? Community, user community, developer community, many groups need to be brought in. Connections, similar to the community, the difference is that there are more one-on-one introductions and endorsements, such as connections with exchanges/VCs/whales.

We need crazy things like this for the market to grow, guys! But I don't know which tokens will be used as collateral; it's likely just $BTC and $ETH, and maybe some top coins from the US.... but that would be too risky. The story of the Fed pivoting to lower interest rates is getting stronger, especially when yesterday's US GDP showed that the economy and job market are not doing well. If the CPE drops tonight, the Fed can't keep being so rigid.

Is this the 25-year wealth code? Last night, the grayscale Top 20 list changed dramatically, LDO and OP were kicked out, and 2 new faces were on the list for the first time. New: 1⃣AVAV, public chain, all know each other. 2⃣MORPHO, lending DeFi, don't know many people? Recently, Coinbase has cooperated with it in the lending business, and the number of users and lending scale has grown rapidly. Watch out: @MorphoLabs Delete: LDO, OP Is this a downgrade of the Ethereum ecosystem? Pls where is the E guard~ In this round, the grayscale presence has decreased significantly, please tell me about it, is this list reliable? The picture shows Grayscale Research's list of Top 20 Assets in Q3 '25. Mainly some DeFi, AI, and Infra projects, which can be studied and studied~ #BTC #ETH $SOL $HYPE $SUI $LINK $AVAX $UNI $AAVE $TAO $ENA #VIRTUAL $IP $JTO $AERO $HNT $MORPHO $GRASS $GEOD

⚡️ Top 20 Crypto by @Grayscale Research 👉 $BTC $ETH $SOL $HYPE $SUI $LINK $AVAX $UNI $AAVE $TAO $ENA #VIRTUAL $IP $AERO $JTO $SYRUP $MORPHO $HNT $GRASS $GEOD