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Written by White55, Mars Finance On May 20, 2025, an electronic screen on the Tokyo bond trading floor flashed a set of dazzling red numbers - Japan's 40-year government bond yield broke through 3.5%, hitting a record high. That figure was 0.25 percent seven years ago and 1.3 percent two years ago, but now it's rocketing. Around the same time, the price of Bitcoin on global cryptocurrency exchanges broke through $112,000, setting an all-time record. The safest safe-haven assets in the traditional financial system and the most controversial new assets in this moment form a dramatic mirror image: the surge in Treasury yields reveals a shaking foundation for sovereign credit, while Bitcoin's surge underscores its value as a hedging tool. Japanese government bonds: where the black swan took off The Japanese government bond market is experiencing an epic crisis of confidence. In May 2025, Japan's 40-year government bond yield broke through a record high of 3.5%, and the 30-year government bond yield also surged to its highest level since 2004. Bond yields are inversely proportional to prices, and surging yields mean bond prices have plummeted, and investors are voting with their feet to abandon what was once considered the safest debt market in the world. At the heart of Japan's debt problem lies in the fundamental imbalance between the size of its debt and its ability to repay its debts. Japan's debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 250%, well above Germany's 62%, while maintaining similar bond yields. Figure 1: Japanese 30-year LSE government bond yields. This misaligned market pricing stems from decades of ultra-loose monetary policy repression by the Bank of Japan. As Japan's inflation continues to rise, the central bank has been forced to abandon its yield curve control policy, and the long-pent-up market forces have erupted like a volcano. Bond auction data reveals the severity of the crisis. The May 2025 Treasury auction saw a precipitous drop in demand, pushing yields even higher9. The weak auction results create a vicious circle with the economic slowdown: the sluggish economy forces the government to expand bond issuance, the increase in bond supply pushes down prices and pushes up yields, which in turn increase the government's debt service burden, further dragging down the economy. The turmoil in the Japanese government bond market quickly spread to global financial markets. On May 25, 2025, the price of Bitcoin fell 1.2% to $67,500 after a spike in yields, S&P 500 futures fell 0.7%, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.9%. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, bucked the trend, with stablecoin token PAXG rising 0.5%. Global capital is reassessing risks, and a crisis of confidence in sovereign debt, triggered by Japan, has begun. Bitcoin: The Rise of a New Risk-Off Logic While traditional safe-haven assets are in crisis themselves, Bitcoin's risk-resistant narrative is being redefined. From "digital gold" to "sovereign risk hedging tool", Bitcoin's role evolution reflects the widening of deep rifts in the traditional financial system. André Dragosch, Head of European Research at Bitwise, hits the nail on the head: "Bitcoin is an immutable asset. It has no counterparty risk. It can hedge sovereign risk and sovereign default." This statement accurately encapsulates Bitcoin's core value proposition in the new financial environment. The logical chain of sovereign hedging is clear: when the debt sustainability of countries such as Japan is questioned→ Treasury yields soar → the government's ability to service its debt deteriorates further → creates a "vicious circle of fiscal debt" → investors seek reserve assets that are decoupled from sovereign credit. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin's unique attributes – a fixed supply of 21 million coins, a decentralized network, and no issuer – fill the safe-haven void left by the collapse of traditional Treasury bonds. Market data confirms this shift in logic. In January 2025, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a record monthly inflow of $4.94 billion. On April 22, the US Bitcoin spot ETF saw a single-day inflow of $912 million, equivalent to more than 500 times the daily average in 2025. Figure 2: BTC/USD recent chart. Institutional money is pouring into the Bitcoin market at an unprecedented rate, with BlackRock's IBIT holding 582,870 BTC in one ETF, more than any other competitor. Action is also taking place at the national level. Czech National Bank President Aleš Michl announced plans to diversify reserves into Bitcoin. The Trump administration has put forward the idea of establishing a "strategic bitcoin reserve", which, if implemented, will transform bitcoin from an investment vehicle into a national strategic asset. Bitcoin is undergoing a qualitative transformation from a marginal speculative asset to a mainstream safe-haven tool. Macro changes: Three engines are driving the revaluation of BTC Behind Bitcoin's breakthrough of all-time highs is a profound reconstruction of the global macroeconomic landscape. Three major engines work together to drive the revaluation of Bitcoin: The Fed's monetary policy tug-of-war with inflation dominates market sentiment. Although the Fed has cut rates by a cumulative 100bp in 2024, it paused in early 2025 due to a rebound in inflation1. The Trump administration's policy of imposing 25% tariffs on imports has further pushed up inflation expectations and weakened the purchasing power of the dollar. Under the double blow of high inflation and high interest rates, Bitcoin's attractiveness as an inflation-resistant asset has increased significantly. "In the context of global economic instability, the market demand for inflation-resistant assets (such as Bitcoin) may increase, and Bitcoin's positioning as 'digital gold' will be further consolidated," according to the analysis of Bitunix Research Institute. Geopolitical risks and policy shifts are key variables. Bitcoin plummeted 17.5% in February 2025 after Trump imposed tariffs on imports from many countries, causing global markets to fluctuate. But dramatically, the Trump administration's pro-crypto policy expectations have injected new impetus into Bitcoin. The White House's plan to consider adding bitcoin to its strategic reserves, if realized, would reshape Bitcoin's position in the global financial system. The shift in policy winds has allowed Bitcoin to benefit from both safe-haven demand and institutional acceptance. Technology adoption and on-chain activity provide fundamental support. In 2025, the Bitcoin ecosystem will usher in a major upgrade: Layer 2 solutions will increase transaction speeds, reduce transaction costs, and the number of Web3 application users will exceed 50 million. Glassnode on-chain data shows that in May 2025, Bitcoin's on-chain trading volume increased by 30% year-on-year, and the number of addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC increased by 15%. Technological evolution and increased adoption have added pragmatism to Bitcoin's store of value narrative. Institutional action: ETFs rewrite the market structure The approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF has completely rewritten the market structure and paved the way for traditional capital to enter the cryptocurrency space. In January 2025, Bitcoin spot ETF saw monthly inflows of $4.94 billion, an increase of 226.67% over the same period last year. As of April 2025, 11 spot bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. hold 1.1 million bitcoins, accounting for 5.5% of the circulating supply, making them the most important marginal buyers in the market. Figure 3: U.S. Spot ETF Net Flow Chart. ETF traffic data has become a leading indicator of the price of Bitcoin. On April 22, 2025, the Bitcoin ETF saw a one-day inflow of $912 million, pushing BTC/USD to a new six-week high. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas described Bitcoin ETFs as entering "Pac-Man mode" on the day, with inflows from most of the 11 ETFs growing, breaking BlackRock's IBIT dominance. Andre Dragosh, head of European research at asset manager Bitwise, noted that "since January 2024, ETFs have become 'marginal buyers' of bitcoin and can effectively determine whether bitcoin spot exchanges are net buying or net selling." This structural change has greatly enhanced the price stability of Bitcoin. The distribution of institutional holdings shows a trend of centralization. As of early 2025, BlackRock's IBIT holds 582,870 Bitcoin, Fidelity FBTC holds 205,510, and the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF holds about 100,000. The three ETF institutions together hold nearly 900,000 bitcoins, accounting for more than 80% of the total ETF holdings. This highly concentrated position structure gives the leading institutions huge market influence, and also brings the risk of market volatility caused by the behavior of a single large account. On-chain data shows a 10% increase in the amount of Bitcoin flowing out of exchanges to cold wallets in May 2025, suggesting that investors are choosing a long-term holding strategy amid uncertainty. Addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC saw a 15% decrease in activity, reflecting the cautious attitude of institutions during periods of yield volatility. These behavioral changes are reshaping the liquidity structure of Bitcoin's market. Financial Paradigm Reconstruction The National Strategic Reserve is no longer just gold and dollars, but also a string of cryptographic keys - the Czech Central Bank announced the inclusion of bitcoin in the reserve, the Trump administration is considering the creation of a "strategic bitcoin reserve", and BlackRock's bitcoin ETF holdings have exceeded 550,000. According to a recent Wall Street Journal survey, more than 60% of institutional investors have considered Bitcoin a "new type of Treasury bond" to hedge against sovereign credit risk. When Japan's 40-year government bond yield topped 3.5%, global capital did not flock to traditional safe-haven havens, opting instead for a new type of asset under the ticker symbol BTC. The underlying logic of the global financial system is being rewritten, and the increased recognition of Bitcoin as a hedge against sovereign risk is not only a victory for cryptocurrencies, but also a major vote of confidence in the traditional financial system.

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