Opinion: Why MakerDAO's MKR will outperform most assets?
Author: Taiki Maeda
Compiler: Deep Tide TechFlow
In the MKR/SKY report a few months ago, I proposed a restart of buybacks that would allow it to outperform most crypto assets on a risk-adjusted basis. Since the buyback was announced on February 20:
- MKR is up 46% from BTC,
- MKR is up 70% from ETH,
- MKR became one of the few cryptocurrencies to see a year-to-date (YTD) price increase: +24%.
In this update, I'm going to discuss three aspects of why I think this trend will continue:
- Launched the SKY staking mechanism
- Forced SKY token migration (> 10% of the supply will be burned)
- The mining plan of SPK tokens
Introducing the SKY staking mechanism
Currently, MKR/SKY is a token that uses all protocol earnings to buy back tokens. At the current rate of buybacks, the protocol buys back about $15 million per month ($500,000 per day), which is equivalent to about 1% of the circulating supply of buybacks per month (the highest proportion of all crypto projects).
On April 30, Rune posted a proposal on the forum to launch the SKY staking mechanism. According to the proposal, 50% of the protocol yield will be distributed to SKY stakers, paid in USDS. That is, about $250,000 per day is used for buybacks, and $250,000 is distributed to stakers.
Assuming 33% of the SKY supply is staked, stakers can expect to earn 7-8% staking yield.
Forced SKY token migration
In the same update, it was also mentioned that there would be a forced migration from MKR to SKY:
Since MKR is one of the first ERC20 tokens (live since 2017), there must be some permanently lost tokens in it. This could be due to reasons such as the loss of the private key, the loss of the wallet, or the death of the holder. Through on-chain data analysis, I found some "sleeping MKR tokens" that will inevitably be burned from the supply.
I base it on reasonable assumptions, such as: "If there are 23,349 MKR tokens that have not been transferred in the last 4-5 years, I can assume that about 90% of them have been permanently lost, i.e. will be destroyed." "Based on these assumptions, I expect that about 100,000 MKRs will be destroyed as a result of migration (about 11.4% of the circulating supply). By referring to other cases of lost tokens (such as the Aragon DAO), I think this is a conservative estimate.
Take, for example, the Aragon DAO token ($ANT) in 2023, when it was trading below the vault value. "Vault looters" or RFVooors buy tokens for less than their net asset value (NAV) and demand to redeem the vault for a profit. The operation was successful, and the process of migrating ANT tokens to new tokens was initiated to redeem the vault value. During this process, approximately 27% of the tokens were not migrated, and it can be inferred that these tokens have been permanently lost.
Therefore, I expect that in the next few months or years, 10-20% of MKR will be burned, which will form a support for the token price. In addition, this forced migration may prompt more centralized exchanges (CEXs) to list SKY, which will bring additional benefits.
SPK token launched
Spark, a project that combines a lending market with on-chain asset management, achieved $40 million in revenue in the first quarter of 2023 with little to no incentives. They are able to borrow stablecoins for SKY at subsidized rates, thereby allocating capital on-chain.
SPK will be a "fair start/mine" token, which can only be mined by staking USDS or SKY (please refer to the relevant documentation for the specific economic model). During the first two years of the token offering, 50% of the $SPK incentive will be distributed. If a fully diluted valuation (FDV) of $500 million is assumed, $250 million of the value will be distributed to SKY/USDS stakers. This will not only provide staking yield for the native token, but will also boost the growth of USDS, which will further drive more buybacks in the future.
In addition, there are other subDAOs or "star" projects that are about to go live (such as Solana Star, RWA Star, etc.), and the launch of these new projects will further support the buyback program.
Stablecoin Bill
THE "STABLECOIN ACT" (GENIUS ACT) IS EXPECTED TO BE SIGNED BY TRUMP IN JULY OR AUGUST. Although the bill is primarily aimed at centralized stablecoin issuers (and therefore has little impact on decentralized issuers), this policy narrative could provide a positive market boost for MKR/SKY. Industry experts predict that the bill is expected to pass in July or August.
summary
Stablecoins are the future and are one of the most profitable projects in the crypto space.