Messari: PUMP is reasonably valued at $7 billion, and it can be earned when it is bought in the public sale?
Original Title: A Valuation of $PUMP
Original Author: Sunny Shi, Messari Crypto
Original Article: Alex Liu, Foresight News
According to major media outlets, citing sources familiar with the matter, pump.fun is preparing to sell 25% of the PUMP token at a valuation of $4 billion to raise $1 billion. Is the price attractive? Messari's Sunny Shi built a valuation model for PUMP, which showed that its FDV (fully floatable market capitalization) could be $7 billion. If the prediction is correct, then the PUMP token bought is earned. But there is an important premise. Here's how they went through the valuation process (Sunny Shi's perspective, "we" or "us" refers to Messari):
No matter what you think of Memecoin, the track continues to "print money". Although the trading volume of the pump.fun issue platform is down from the beginning of the year, it is still well above the level of most of 2024.
Pump.fun has more trading volume than most of '24, data: Messari
One may also underestimate the success of PumpSwap. The DEX went live about three months ago, but has already significantly eaten into Raydium's market share on Solana.
PumpSwap vs. Raydium market share comparison, data: Messari
Our valuation methodology uses a top-down model, which assumes the overall crypto market volume, Solana share, launchpad share, and PumpSwap market share. These assumptions and models are only open to enterprise customers, but I will share the main conclusions.
In our base case, we believe that Memecoin will occupy a niche in the broader crypto economy, as they are more suitable for speculative use than NFTs. Of course, the Solana ecosystem will undoubtedly diversify into new asset pairs as it matures, but it's also likely to be true.
We believe that even if pump.fun's share of the Solana ecosystem declines slightly, PumpSwap continues to grow, and the pump project is still expected to generate about $675 million in revenue over the next two years. At a 10x valuation multiple, the corresponding FDV is approximately $7 billion.
However, the key premise is that if the project chooses an opaque token/stake structure that distributes the majority of revenue to insiders rather than token holders, then we believe that the current market has become quite cautious and will not ignore this poor way of accumulating value. In our full report, we provide a valuation table that evaluates the potential value of PUMP based on the percentage of revenue that token holders can receive.
Regardless of what the market ultimately judges, this is a great opportunity to participate in the most lucrative crypto app in history. Now it's up to the project team to give token holders enough buy-in value to make it a worthwhile investment.
Editor's note: In Aevo's pre-market perpetual market, the price of PUMP is $6 at the moment, corresponding to 6 billion FDV (fully floatable market capitalization).
PUMP pre-market price on Aevo
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