Matrixport Market Observation: BTC, ETH lead the gains, and the digital asset market ushers in multiple policy benefits?

Last week (June 24 - July 1), the BTC price hovered between $105,000 and $107,000, and the ETH spot ETF saw a net inflow of $255 million, driving the price higher. Affected by the positive news, the long-term bullish expectations for BTC and gold have increased, and the BTC price has fluctuated in a wide range from $105,000 to $107,000 during the week, with a maximum increase of 9.21%, and the current price is stable around $106,751. ETH price soared, breaking through the key resistance level of $2,500 for several short periods to as high as $2,525, and the price is currently retraced to around $2,446 with a maximum volatility of 15.4% during the week (Binance spot, 14:20 on July 2).

The three major U.S. stock indexes rose for three consecutive days, and the S&P 500 broke through 6,200 for the first time. In the first half of 2025, the U.S. stock market was volatile due to Trump's tariff policy, and the market is gradually recovering. As of the last trading day of the first half of the year, the Dow rose 3.64%, the S&P 500 rose 5.5%, and the NASDAQ rose 5.48%

Market interpretation

The inflow of ETH funds resonates with the development of the ecosystem, and the upward momentum of ETH price is enhanced

ETH price rose 3.5% in 24 hours on June 30. Institutional demand is strong, with CoinShares reporting net inflows of $255 million last week and nearly $2.9 billion year-to-date. At the same time, 35 million ETH was staked on-chain, accounting for 28% of the total supply, and the liquidity supply continued to decline.

Robinhood has announced the development of an Arbitrum-based L2 network that plans to support features such as ETH staking and tokenized shares, demonstrating confidence in ETH's scaling prospects. ETH co-founder Buterin recently proposed a zero-knowledge proof digital identity solution to help Web3 privacy and compliance. The EthCC conference in Cannes, France, attracted more than 6,400 developers, and the industry focused on protocol innovation and application implementation.

Fiscal divergences have intensified, and BTC and gold may benefit from safe-haven demand

Recently, Trump reiterated that "economic growth will offset the deficit", which attracted market attention during the debate on his latest tax reform bill. BTC rose accordingly, up 0.54% in the 24-hour period on June 30. Affected by continued loose fiscal policy and deficit expectations, the market has become less attractive to traditional fixed income assets such as US bonds, and capital preferences have shifted to hard assets such as BTC and gold to hedge against inflation and fiscal risks.

As the controversy over large-scale tax cuts and fiscal stimulus in the United States intensifies, deficits continue to widen, currency depreciation and inflation expectations rise, and the attractiveness of gold and BTC as inflation-resistant, safe-haven assets is expected to continue to grow in the future. Recently, the volatility of BTC's price range has increased, and there are obvious signs of capital inflow, reflecting investors' sensitive response to macro policy risks.

The U.S. Senate pushes ahead with the "Big and Beautiful" bill, and crypto taxation and compliance welcome new changes

On July 1, the U.S. Senate voted 51-49 to advance the "Big and American" bill, which includes tax cuts, fiscal spending and other measures, sparking controversy over the level of deficits and national debt. The bill proposes an amendment to the tax exemption for small crypto transactions (less than $300 per transaction and $5,000 per year), which, if passed, would simplify the tax process for crypto users and reduce the cost of day-to-day compliance. WITH THE PROMOTION OF THE GENIUS ACT, THE REGULATORY AND TAX ENVIRONMENT OF THE U.S. CRYPTO INDUSTRY HAS ACCELERATED ITS TRANSFORMATION, AND INSTITUTIONS EXPECT THAT STABLECOINS AND ON-CHAIN PAYMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO FURTHER BENEFIT, AND THE TREND OF INDUSTRY COMPLIANCE WILL BE STRENGTHENED.

XRP's daily trading volume plummeted by 54%, and the market sentiment tended to be on the sidelines

Ripple has announced that it has dropped its cross-appeal with the SEC, and XRPL has been upgraded to 2.5.0 with several new features. Robinhood's launch of XRP Micro Futures did not lead to a recovery in trading volumes. On June 30, XRP's daily trading volume plunged 54% to $1.38 billion, with the price inching up to $2.19. The sharp drop in trading volume reflects the wait-and-see of investors, and the subsequent progress of innovation and compliance will become an active observation point.

Circle's listing is "ice and fire", and its core value and valuation continue to attract attention

The market value of Circle (CRCL) soared to $63 billion after its listing, and its stock price rose by more than 700%, which was significantly higher than its actual circulating size of USDC, and it recently pulled back more than 15%. More than 95% of Circle's revenue depends on USDC reserve interest, and its future performance is highly sensitive to interest rates and the total supply of USDC. With USDC supply exceeding $61 billion, funding efficiency far exceeds the industry average, and whether it can deliver on high growth expectations still depends on market share expansion and new opportunities for compliance.

Hong Kong has clarified the stamp duty exemption for tokenized ETFs to support the development of the digital asset market

The Hong Kong Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau recently released the "Hong Kong Digital Asset Development Policy Statement 2.0", which proposes to promote the tokenization of various asset classes, including precious metals, non-ferrous metals and renewable energy. The policy clarifies that the existing stamp duty exemption applicable to traditional ETFs will also apply to tokenized ETFs, eliminating market doubts and facilitating future secondary market trading on licensed digital asset platforms and other venues. This move is seen as another substantial positive for Hong Kong to accelerate the development of the digital asset and tokenized financial product ecosystem.

Matrixdock, Matrixport's professional RWA tokenization platform, holds a Class A financial services license from the Hong Kong Customs and Excise Department to conduct gold and precious metals trading in compliance. The gold token, XAUm, is now available for 1:1 redemption for LBMA-certified physical gold bars of 99% purity. In the near future, Matrixdok also plans to launch tokenized products such as silver, platinum and palladium to further enrich its precious metal asset token ecosystem.

Market hotspots

The US non-farm payrolls data for June will be released ahead of schedule, and the holiday will affect market liquidity

Due to the Independence Day holiday, the US non-farm payrolls report for June will be released ahead of schedule at 20:30 (Beijing time) on Wednesday, July 3. On the same day, the U.S. stock and CME stock index futures closed early, and the U.S. stock market closed on July 4, and the relevant futures contracts will also end trading early. Investors should pay attention to the timing of data release and liquidity changes, and be alert to the risks brought by market volatility and reduced liquidity during the holiday period.

Mastercard joins the Global Dollar Network to expand its stablecoin partnership

Mastercard announced that it has joined the Global Dollar Network (GDN), a stablecoin alliance launched by Paxos and others, which also includes well-known platforms such as Robinhood and Kraken. GDN allows members to co-mint USDG, a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar, and share in the interest income from reserve assets, such as U.S. Treasuries. Mastercard also plans to support multiple stablecoins such as PayPal's PYUSD and Fiserv's FIUSD, and integrate them into its own Mastercard Move cross-border remittance network to accelerate the application of digital currencies in the field of payment and transfer.

Hong Kong's Stablecoin Ordinance will soon come into effect to strengthen financial efficiency and risk prevention and control

Hong Kong's Stablecoin Ordinance will come into effect on 1 August 2025, requiring all businesses to issue or provide fiat-linked stablecoins in Hong Kong to obtain a license, 100% highly liquid asset reserves, 1:1 redemption and real-time redemption, and strengthen anti-money laundering and transparency regulations. Hong Kong strives to strike a balance between innovation and risk prevention and control, and steadily upgrades itself to become an international digital financial hub.

Disclaimer: The above does not constitute investment advice, an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy to residents of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, the United States, Singapore or other countries or regions where such offers or solicitations of offers may be prohibited by law. Digital asset trading can be extremely risky and volatile. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with a financial professional. Matrixport is not responsible for any investment decisions based on the information provided herein.