Circle is undoubtedly the most frenetic representative of the crypto space since June, with an increase of more than 500% since its IPO on June 5.

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CRCL shares hit an all-time high with a market capitalization of $48.4 billion. According to Yahoo Finance website, Circle currently has about 36.34 million shares outstanding, accounting for 17.94% of its total share capital (202.55 million shares). Based on the closing price of $199.59 on the 18th, the corresponding circulating market value is about $7.253 billion.

The rise in Circle's stock price also stimulated Coinbase's stock price to follow suit, which is the first time since COIN's IPO that it has risen sharply in terms of price and trading volume.

With the new high of Circle's stock price, institutions have also begun to gradually sell in profits.

ARK Makes $96 Million in Profit

Alone Circle reportedly plans to raise $624 million by issuing 24 million shares, corresponding to a target valuation of $6.7 billion. ARK Invest subscribed $150 million and Larry Fink's BlackRock invested $60 million, with the two institutions collectively accounting for about 35% of the round.

On June 5, ARK Invest bought nearly 4.5 million shares of CRCL on Circle's first day of listing, with a total value of approximately $373 million at the closing price.

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when the CRCL price topped an all-time high of $160, Ark Invest sold a total of 342,658 shares of Circle Internet Group Inc. through its three exchange-traded funds, including ARK Innovation The ETF (ARKK) reduced its holdings by 196,367 shares, the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) reduced its holdings by 92,310 shares, and the ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) reduced its holdings by 53,981 shares; The total value is approximately $51.7 million.

On June 17, CRCL shares recovered above $160 again, and Ark Invest's three ETFs sold more than 300,000 more CRCL shares, generating $44.76 million in revenue.

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Despite selling more than 600,000 shares, Ark Invest holds nearly 4 million shares of Circle stock, valued at approximately $371 million, or 6.13% of its ETFs. That said, at the current share price, ARK's two sell-offs this week are just selling the current CRCL holdings for profit.

Related reading: "Crypto Bull Market, All in U.S. Stocks: Ten Days of Circle from $31 to $165"

Can People in the Crypto Circle Short Circle Now?

"Circle's market capitalization has risen to $40 billion, and it only issues 60 billion USDC." The sentiment of a senior trader on the social platform shows the complex mentality of people in the cryptocurrency circle about this wave of CRCL. The soaring of CRCL since its listing not only reflects the collective sentiment of the crypto market, but also reveals the differences in cognition and game between different trading groups.

Insiders who are familiar with the operating logic of USDC should have been the earliest beneficiaries, but in this round of IPO market, there was a rare split - some people "pinched their noses and bought", while others "understood the logic, but thought the valuation was too expensive", and finally missed the rise. However, more traditional investors rushed directly into CRCL due to information barriers and narrative differences, and bullish sentiment pushed the price skyrocketing.

"It may be a long-term regret that we didn't dare to stud CRCL," crypto trader yuyue wrote, "and Circle will firmly occupy the leading position of this narrative until USDT's orthodox IPO of US stocks (almost impossible) or USD1 surpasses USDC and completes the IPO (short-term hopelessness)."

"My U.S. stock winning record is lost in the Circle stock!" Twitter user "Sweet Pear" laughed at himself, "Since Circle has been in turmoil, the logic of playing stocks in the past is no longer useful, but it has to be the logic of speculation. Now the U.S. stock market is for me, and I have punched the old driver to death." For Sweet Pear, Circle's fundamentals do not support this round of gains, and the short-term trend cannot be explained by conventional models.

Some traders use less than 18% of the circulating market value as an explanation for the short-term surge, which is similar to the very small market market of WLD at the beginning, which once again gives traders in the currency circle a lesson, "fundamentals and short-term trends are two different kinds of things".

Others chose to bet on the beta effect, with crypto KOL Taiki writing before Circle's IPO: "Companies like CRCL are essentially pricing anchors for stablecoins, and if it's worth $10 billion, then the valuations of ENA and MKR will have to be recalculated." Taiki is taking advantage of spillovers by adding to DeFi blue-chip assets. Today, CRCL has skyrocketed to a market capitalization of 40 billion, while ENA and MKR are clearly underperforming CRCL.

And the other type of people who have not ended up, the reason is simpler - too understanding. Deribit's sister Lin has bluntly advised her family not to touch CRCL, arguing that "Circle has a single income structure, and it has long been a red ocean, and BlackRock's BUIDL and Trump's USD1 will squeeze their share." Her judgment is not emotional, but stems from a deep understanding of the stablecoin ecosystem. But she also admits that "in the currency circle, knowing too much sometimes becomes a burden."

Unlike cryptocurrency traders who repeatedly scrutinize valuations and fundamentals, U.S. stock investors are more willing to listen to stories. As crypto KOL Kay said on X, U.S. stock traders who buy CRCL see "the national strategy, replace VISA, and rush to 2000", while the real users of the so-called cryptocurrency circle see "the compliance cost is so high that there is no profit, the interest rate cut cycle is easy to lose, the issuance relies on a large number of subsidies, and the reasonable valuation is 30-50".

Jack Zhang, co-founder and CEO of Airwallex, who previously posted on Platform X questioning the practical use of stablecoins, sparked market discussions, said in a post on Platform X, "It's time to short Circle."

But now, is it really the time?

The narrative of Circle stocks is not for people in the currency circle, and a Coinbase x Circle maxi Chris thinks that thinking that Circle is too expensive is a "self-sprout" for people in the currency circle, "You think it is the currency circle revolution finance, but the financial industry not only joins the currency circle, but also revolutionizes the currency circle."

Others see the Circle listing as a potential bull top signal, similar to the 2021 Coinbase listing day that also happened to be the high of Bitcoin's last bull run. But there are also objections: "This round of bubbles is far less severe than in 2021, Altcoin has been heavily shuffled, BTC. D is still in the high position."

What's more, CRCL is a traditional IPO with a 180-day internal lock-up period, which is limited in the short term, unlike the $COIN that year, which was directly cashed out by insiders. A large number of hedge funds failed to enter the market on the first day of CRCL's listing and could only "chase higher" in the secondary market. Some short-selling institutions are also suffering from extremely high annualized funding rates (over 5%), which is difficult to form substantial pressure.

As Arthur Hayes puts it, "Should you short Circle? In a pig's eye. You can not buy, but do not go short. The emotional premium is the most terrifying acceleration energy."

Perhaps, Circle's market cap isn't worth believing right now. But what it represents - a stablecoin platform jointly supported by BlackRock, Fidelity, Visa, Coinbase and others has crossed the compliance red line and entered the mainstream market of US stocks. Its valuation does not come from the consensus in the cryptocurrency community, but from the stock market's repricing of the "fintech compliance platform".

Hayes believes that Circle is grossly overvalued, but the price will continue to rise, as this listing marks the beginning, not the end, of this round of stablecoin frenzy.

Related reading: Arthur Hayes: Stablecoin IPOs are a "dead end", but I advise you not to go short

At a time when traditional payment giants have not yet entered the market on a large scale, when USDT is unlikely to IPO, and USD1 is still in the policy observation period, Circle may be the only carrier of this wave of narrative. "There's no real future, because the distribution channels for new entrants are closed, shove this idea into your fool's head and trade this like a hot potato. But don't go short, these new stocks will cost the shorts nothing."