⏰下一个爆掉的大雷是微策略 #MSTR ?如果被MSCI指数剔除影响会有多大?
昨天的砸盘很莫名奇妙,现在看来,应和JPMorgan发布的MSCI风险预警有关,财库公司真埋了大雷吗?🙄🙄
1⃣微策略持仓
BTC总量649871颗,价值547亿美元,成本价在74000左右,目前虽是盈利状态。但是微策略本身的软件业务年收入只有5亿,负债率极高
2⃣微策略可能被“切断”融资来源?
微策略hold 价值500亿比特币的钱大概是这么来的:70%靠发可转债+20%的股票增发+直接融资
@saylor 在推文中回复的消息表明,持有的BTC并未做抵押,所以不存在硬性清算风险。但后续的融资渠道的确有被“切断”的风险
3⃣MSCI指数风波始末
MSCI在10月10号提出咨询,提议排除持有量超过总资产50%的“数字资产储备公司”,MSCI认为此类公司类似于共同基金,不适合纳入股权基准指数
该提议至2025年12月31日结束,最终决定将于2026年1月15日公布,但事情的发酵是昨天JPMorgan发布的风险预警
4⃣影响很大
通俗解释一下后果,比如茅台被踢出沪深300指数,那99%的投资者买入基金将不会包含茅台
所以如果提议实施,财库公司受影响将会非常大。以微策略为例,摩根大通估计,仅MSCI剔除就可能引发约28亿美元的资金外流,若其他指数提供商(如Nasdaq-100、Russell 1000)跟进,总外流预估达88亿美元,最蛋疼的是股价会遭到抛售,引发未知连锁反应,微策略砸BTC换现金流也是有可能的
🔷从后果上看,微策略公司的确有“融资渠道”受阻的可能,后续很可能买不动了,但我觉得不至于到“抛售”的程度,投资者应很清楚 #MSTR 的业务构成, MSCI剔除对股价的影响并不会很大,而且微策略们也可以换壳剥离
🔶以阴谋论看,逼 #MSTR 交出BTC筹码也很合理。因为编制MSCI的公司源自摩根,发风险预警的也是摩根,而且摩根亲自持有了大饼二饼的ETF......
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