Good alpha, good follow Regarding XPL, classic case of presale seller into skewed longs on perps In this case, the spot seller is 50M tokens, which is close to 2.5% of float iirc, quite large Pain points very clearly at or below $1 / avg HL entry $1.16(underwater) Lock in
some thoughts on $XPL Initially I thought that last night when rasmr sold, and we had an OI spike with very positive funding, it was long chasing. While that may be partly true, I think what we have here is a bit more complex than that. My idea is that there are some very heavy spot sellers, who are sending the oracle price down in a more agressive pace than its trading on perps. This is why we have constant positive funding regardless of the open interest being more heavy on the short side. (im using hyperliquid data only in this case only. Hyperliquid has ~600m of open interest while nance + bybit equals to around ~450m) So my approach would be: To judge when the spot sell pressure is done i think funding rate might be a good indicator. You wanna look for funding rate going down (without a very hard OI spike of shorts). I believe this would mean the spot sell pressure is cooling down / buyers are stepping in. Though it might get a bit more complex than that as i believe a decent chunk of the short sided oi are hedges, which might unwind once the spot selling is done. I cant quite explain exactly what I want to see yet, but its the type of situation where you know what you want when you see it. So for now im monitoring 3 things: funding rate, open interest, ratio between longs and shorts on hyperdash. This is how i see it right now, i might be wrong, curious to hear what you think.
I think this is a very free 2x / 3x in Q4 if you enter properly I covered my sub $1 entries a bit higher, my mistake was not hedging with the solana bros were top blasting but we move like water
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