The judgment before the opening is a fluctuation between 0.7 and 0.9. Currently, it seems that the sentiment is Fomo+ and the market makers have set the fluctuation range at 1.1-1.4. During this period, there has been a large amount of turnover, and the contract OI is also reasonable. Referring to Jup's trend, I believe we will see a high point above 2 soon.
Reviewing XPL: The original plan was to participate in the secondary market in a laid-back manner, as I felt the trend was good but the space was limited. Just yesterday afternoon, I was catching a flight and missed the last segment of pre-market; after landing at seven, I felt the opening price would be above 0.7, so I went to have barbecue with friends and kept a laid-back attitude, as my pre-market judgment was that it would follow a horizontal-consolidation to consensus-uptrend route like Jup. By around ten, when I got home and looked closely, I thought the horizontal movement looked very nice; the price should have dropped but didn’t, OI maintained a high upward trend, and the community sentiment was very excited with a low ratio of large holders selling. After some thought, I felt the odds were decent and didn’t want to miss out, so I started building my position, remembering it was around 0.76 at 10:00. I was quite lucky that just a few minutes after building my position, it started to rise. My first reaction was that the sentiment was high, but not excessively so; I took some profit around 0.95 during the first wave because the turnover was intense, OI growth slowed down, and there were small liquidations. If it was a contract-driven rise, it should have consolidated for a bit. I placed an order around 0.85 and went to take a shower. After my shower, I found that my order had been filled. My first reaction was that this should be a fluctuating upward trend, so I placed a sell order around 1 and a buy order around 0.8, leaving the remaining orders in the range of 1.3-1.5 to take profit, as I felt that even with strong consensus, there would still be large holders selling here. Then I was quite tired and went to sleep. When I woke up, I found that aside from a small dream order, everything else had been filled... I can only say that it indeed follows the logic of Jup's trend but is much stronger, possibly because there have been too many new coins recently, skipping the consolidation and being directly bought up by the market... When I got up in the morning, it was clear that large holders were also appearing to sell; at this point, I should be more observant and less active in the short term.
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