Prediction markets have clearly found PMF and are one of the few Web3-native use cases that have successfully breached into mainstream audiences. However, their growth is kneecapped by a fatal flaw: centralization. Gatekept market creation and highly subjective resolutions (see Polymarket and control UMA whales exercise in that context) are the equivalent of a whitelisted @pumpdotfun model, which is destined to fail at scale. In the post below my fren @Louround_ accurately identifies permissionless market creation and participation as the next frontier of the prediction market narrative. Really recommend to check out the two emerging players he highlights too: - @meleemarkets on Solana - @BuzzingApp on Fluent (part of @BlendedBldrs) Especially the latter is designing a compelling new architecture to solve the issues inherent to platforms like the before-mentioned Polymarket. It replaces slow, biased human-induced bottlenecks with a fully verifiable AI stack to automate the...
Akin to token creation, prediction markets need to be permissionless and 2 new contenders are leading the charge. It's one of the biggest IRL adoptions of this cycle, yet most markets need to be reviewed through a centralized entity. It's like implementing a whitelist and review model on every coin created, clearly impacting the growth and spread of the product. Prediction markets truly show that aggregating collective intelligence to forecast real-world events has remarkable accuracy, such as the US presidential elections compared to traditional polls. As a user myself of Polymarket, I remain disappointed about the centralization for manual market creation, subjective resolution processes, and significant gatekeeping. Users can't freely create markets, rules are written by humans (introducing bias and delays akin to Zelensky's suit), and the resolution process relies on centralized decision-making, mainly handled by whales (Uma). This creates bottlenecks, limits innovation, and...
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