long post rant about 'supercycle'; seeing a lot of "smart" ppl claiming cycles don't exist anymore and that we're getting relentless perpetual bid on BTC now from 'boomers', preventing us from having gruesome downturns, elongated bear markets [1-2Y] - and that participants should position accordingly while it is true that we, traders and rotators, have vastly outperformed holders and 'believers' this cycle due to severe dilution and dispersion; how come, if some form of 'supercycle' idea is prevalent, is it possible we're getting clear cut high beta rotational dynamics down the risk curve that we've always gotten at the tail end of a cycle? how come the fluidity of markets are behaving exactly as they should in a cycle? "Bitcoin is getting too expensive so boomers are chasing beta" - okay, but if BTC is too expensive here, at which price is it not? clearly anything >100k is above fair value, even if you model out the fair values via whatever system you use, realization hits that it's <100k for now "Boomers are starting to grasp ETH/SOL value, soon enough they will rotate back to BTC". surely...right..? into the [currently] overpriced, above fair value asset? did we not just establish that the prime rotation comes from asset A being 'too expensive' - a tale as old as the markets - the expected returns are simply not attractive for the next few years - you are left with holders/SoV - which is perfectly fine, but foolish to expect MAG7 can nuke 70%, alas, our precious orange coin cannot? rotation into ETH has been ongoing for almost 5 months now - gradual rotation into SOL has started about a week ago - I'm expecting a rotation into lower caps in the near future [months] - yet there's some magical reason looming over us that will somehow keep BTC above fair value until the end of times due to ETFs, that after shitcoin rotations [lets be real, SOL is already a shitcoin, let alone further down the curve] somehow the money will magically fly back into BTC and 'restart' the 'mini cycle'? I'm not bearish BTC, especially not long-term, but it's highly unlikely that "this time is different" if we are indeed getting the exact same beta dynamics - which are a sign of a healthy, functioning market I know the narrative feels good to chirp around, that somehow we're safe this time, but I'd urge people to sprinkle some realism - even optimistic cynicism - it won't hurt you Gold has ETFs, stocks have 'boomer bid' for over a century - yet, bear markets in both sectors are a necessary occurance people forget that BTC is driven by liquidity, risk asset correlation, you wanted adoption, that's the price you continue to pay for it the debasement arguments are for somewhat-distant future - if you're going to rely on fiat collapse every time there's a half-assed argument to make that fits Bitcoins globalization - you might just burn yourself plethora of times before you're eventually correct secure the bag, wake up - there will be disgusting bear markets, and I'm willing to bet one is coming fairly soon [quarters] I urged people to sell 2022, buy 2023, hold 2024 - I urge people to behave responsibly and rationally here food for thought.