I previously shared the hedging strategy of long ETH short altcoins, and as of today, exactly half a month later, including the part that has been closed, the profit is about $3M. There are some imperfections in execution, such as my subjective judgment that ETH will pull back after a short period of time, and some long orders will be closed, and I have to pick it up at a higher price, losing part of my profits. If the positions are equal at the beginning, as the strong currency rises and the weak currency falls, the proportion of the former will be greater than the latter, how to carry out the selection and proportional distribution of short targets is the core of this strategy. Regarding the closing of this strategy, I have also shared two ideas in the comment area before, and it is more safe to wait until ETH tops out and pulls back, and then start to close long and short orders at the same time. What is more radical is that as ETH rises, it gradually takes profits and takes profits, tilting from hedging to shorting, and if the right point is chosen, you can lock in more profits, but if you close too early, you may lose money because of the rise of short orders. According to the observation of this period of time, the fastest profit of this strategy is often ETH shock and fall, and the copycat will basically dive, and the profit retracement generally occurs after the decline of ETH slightly, and the altcoin will rise even more. The market is ever-changing, and there is no way of thinking to make money lying down and always thinking.
At present, the long and short divergence is serious, I opened a hedging trade, long ETH, short a package of copycats, the position is about 1:1, and I will exchange ideas with you. My logic is that ETH is the engine of this round of rise that began at the end of June, and the main driving force is that institutions follow the micro-strategy and purchase ETH through currency stock financing, and the other is the stablecoin narrative, which is the relevant core infrastructure and settlement layer. Referring to the previous process of buying BTC with micro-strategies and driving prices all the way up, in the end, most altcoins are far from outperforming BTC. This part of the funds used by currency stocks and institutions to buy ETH is also unlikely to spill over to other altcoins. According to CMC, only 20 of the top 200 tokens have risen more than ETH in the past 30 days, including Bonk, Zora, CFX, and ENA, which are obviously driven by positive events. In terms of copycat selection, follow the logic of previous shorting, give priority to those with high market capitalization, non-leader, weak move, and low presence, and disperse short selling, set stop losses, and prevent single targets from exploding. If the market continues to be bullish in the second half of the year, I believe there is a high probability that it will still be driven by ETH, and if it goes bearish, I don't think the copycats can be alone, and ETH at least has the purchasing power of institutions. It will lead to the failure of this hedging idea, either the altcoin season is really coming, most of the altcoins continue to outperform ETH, or ETH fluctuates or leads the decline, while other altcoins do not fall much, according to the experience of the past few months, I think the possibility is small.
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