The window for crypto to blow off is shrinking — expect a vertical frenzy like the final phase of 2011, 2013, or 2017 — not 2021.
Then comes the recession… and the first true correction in Bitcoin’s history.
Institutions will get their shakeout of the century moment too.
The shake-out of the century could get sub $1k and it could take 16 years to recover from it.
Each power law model and stock-to-flow model is fit to bull market data only!
@saylor will have a margin call at some moment...
BTC is breaking out w.r.t. the global money supply M1. This is relevant, as the same did happen in 2013 and 2017, but not in 2021. The type of bull market we’re about to witness is likely of the blow-off magnitude of the 2013 and 2017 bull market. The 2021 bull market was not able to even break the 2017 top on this chart.
This is also confirmed by the RHODL ratio, which during the 2013 and 2017 bull cycles peaked in the red zone, but not during the 2021 bull market.
So the 2021 bull market will get a lot of people sidelined if a 2013/2017 type of blow-off occurs, as most people are anticipating diminishing returns.
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