What reasonable scenario could I see that does not align with my bullish bias ?
That would be that we are in a similar situation as in early May, and that the new ATH does not result in continuation but rather in several weeks of chop + bleeding and alt underperformance
But these are the differences that lead me to conclude that it's NOT the same set-up :
- $BTC broke its ATH much more convincingly, and went from $112k to $123k in 5 days compared to a timid ATH break retraced in a day in May
- The top performers are NOT over-shorted dead shitcoins (MOODENG, PNUT, AI agents) that have a short-squeeze / echo-bubble type move.
I would not argue that the current top gainers are 'quality coins', but the way $SPX is moving is much more healthy vs the MOODENG pump, and the top performer picks seem more grounded into reality
- The move on altcoins overall is less spiky than in May : OTHERS/BTC pumped hard during 5 days bottom to top in May, and that was following several weeks of weakness, so it was more about squeezing shorts than having genuine strength. This time we are in an uptrend that has lasted for 9 days already, and that is following 2 weeks of higher lows on OTHERS/BTC => this is healthier and suggests that there is a real seller exhaustion, which I think ends with the usual reflexive vertical moves we see in crypto


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