The P/E ratio for Bitcoin treasury companies: P/BYD
Price / Bitcoin Yield Delivered (we've been calling it "p-bid") represents a valuable new metric for #Bitcoin treasury company analysis.
THREAD on how it works & what it reveals about traditional equities...
To date, BTCTC analysis has used two key metrics:
• mNAV: market cap / treasury value
• Days to Cover: how many days ago did BTC Per Share = current BPS / mNAV
Each tells half of the full story (market premium & recent rate of performance). P/BYD incorporates both.
In traditional equities analysis, the P/E ratio is a valuable shorthand for how many years it will take to earn back your investment via income statement profits.
By contrast, BTCTCs deliver value via the balance sheet, by growing Bitcoin Per Share (aka, delivering BTC Yield).
If we wanted to create a metric for BTCTCs to isolate the number of years that it could take to deliver enough BTC Yield to offset the mNAV premium paid up front, what would that look like?
In other words, what would be the BTCTC equivalent to a P/E ratio?
Introducing P/BYD...
P/BYD (aka "p-bid") is most similar to Days to Cover, but improves on it in a couple of ways:
• Returns output in years (like a P/E ratio)
• Allows the user to define a sample period of recent performance to project forward, rather than simply looking back in time as far as necessary
P/BYD ratio examples, as of 15 July:
@Strategy: mNAV of 1.95x and 19.7% BTC Yield in 1H 2025 = P/BYD of 1.86
@Metaplanet_JP: mNAV of 3.51x and 129.4% BTC Yield in Q2 2025 = P/BYD of 0.38
@smarterwebuk: mNAV of 5.5.8x and 419% 30-Day BTC Yield = P/BYD of 0.09
@Strategy @Metaplanet_JP @smarterwebuk How do these compare to traditional equity P/E ratios?
Remember, these numbers are YEARS to shareholder return from cumulative profits. (20-53 years)
Meanwhile, P/BYD returns potential YEARS to return on BTC invested. (0.09-1.86 years)
@Strategy @Metaplanet_JP @smarterwebuk With the P/BYD ratio, we now have the language to directly compare Bitcoin treasury company valuations to traditional equities and their P/E ratios.
This leaves investors globally to ask themselves: in the investable landscape, which companies offer deep value?
@Strategy @Metaplanet_JP @smarterwebuk For the full Smarter Web Research Brief introducing and detailing P/BYD, see the link in the comments below.
PDF is posted on the @smarterwebuk website, viewable to all. #SWC $TSWCF $3M8.F @asjwebley
Link to full @smarterwebuk Research Brief on P/BYD:
Check out the P/BYD ("p-bid") analysis for your Bitcoin treasury company in this @smarterwebuk Research Brief:
Strategy: @saylor @digitalphong @shirishjajodia @_ChaitanyaJ
Metaplanet: @gerovich @DylanLeClair_ @Yoshimi3350Abe
Folks who may be interested in this new BTCTC metric, P/BYD ("p-bid"), from this @smarterwebuk Research Brief:
@PrestonPysh who directly inspired this idea in convo with @asjwebley and me
@AlexandreLaizet @jackmallers @adam3us @shoneanstey @Sanderandersenn @TorbjrnBullJens @SemlerEric @IIICapital @ColeMacro
Analysts:
@MSTRTrueNorth @PunterJeff @BenWerkman @TimKotzman @hillery_dan @ryQuant @BTCBULLRIDER @ActuallyClimber @BitcoinPierre @btc_overflow @RichardByworth @stackhodler @samcallah @Eric_BIGfund @AdamBLiv @BitcoinPowerLaw @JoshMandell6 @Z06Z07 @LizardWizardBTC
@LynAldenContact The recursive issue is still there, but here are the economics that are playing out as well...
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