I was too busy before and didn't have time to write this. Now I'm already 30, but fortunately, all my friends have been called to get on the bus.
There has been enough analysis on reserve-listed companies in the market, so I will only mention a few key conclusions.
The business of all reserve companies is extremely simple: fundraising to buy coins. Therefore, the analysis only needs to focus on two indicators: NAV premium (market value/reserve coin value) and the cost for institutional investors.
1. Why do these companies have NAV premiums? To rephrase the question, why do some people choose to buy coin stocks at a high price instead of directly buying coins?
- Speculative trading; right now, Crypto is the hottest topic in the US stock market.
- Limited choices for institutional investors; many institutions cannot buy coins due to regulations, and they can't even buy BTC/ETH ETFs, such as mutual funds, state pension funds, and foreign institutions, but they still want exposure to Crypto.
- Positive expectations for the company's future coin holdings, structured similarly to a one-way closed-end fund without sell-off expectations, allowing coin stocks to move together; if the management is financially savvy enough, they can raise a large amount of funds at low interest rates to get the positive flywheel turning.
2. So how much premium is reasonable? In the long run, the strategy is around 1.5x-3x. New companies can be exaggerated to 20x in the early stages, and after a while, they can stabilize at 3-5x; smaller companies have higher growth expectations than larger ones, allowing for greater multiples.
3. Currently, these fluctuating strategy copycats have not yet reached the stage of various fancy financing tools like MicroStrategy. The initial money/cost for buying coins comes from private investors, and who are these private investors? The costs are transparent on the SEC's official website, and all buying and selling must be registered.
4. Therefore, the code of conduct is: find new companies with capital operation capabilities (able to raise large amounts of money continuously) that can hold the target coins (the operator's own coin holdings are already substantial, or they have brought a group of stakeholders on board) at appropriate price levels (comparing institutional investor costs/NAV multiples), buy in, and wait for a rebound.
SBET is a perfect example; Consensys brought in a group of funds that made a fortune on Ethereum, with strong operational and financing capabilities, and institutional cost at 6.25; when the price dropped to 9, the NAV premium dropped to 1.5, so at that point, just go for it.
The same logic applies to Upexi from a few days ago; GSR brought in a group that bought FTX Solana bonds, with strong operational and financing capabilities, and institutional cost at 2.28; when the price dropped to a low of 2.5, and the NAV premium dropped to 1.1, just go for it at that point.
Who’s next? Just do the math, and you'll get it; it's a victory for those with an IQ of 50.
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