I guess everyone is hoping for an interest rate cut in September. The U.S. economy is quite stable right now, and the unemployment rate is low, which is good for risk markets.
Then let the market have another wave. Around early next year, news of a recession will start to spread. Then let the market drop a bit, so everyone can buy the dip.
Then in the second half of next year, after the National Day holiday, that’s when the real economic recovery will begin. That’s when the real liquidity flood and good market conditions will start...
This script sounds good, right? 🤣 $BTC
Of course, be careful ⚠️ An interest rate cut is a good thing, but it doesn't mean a skyrocketing increase. Let's watch and see.
This should be the idea of many small partners, although many small partners say that the Fed is the chairman can decide, but judging from the dot plot and the speeches of the meeting minutes, although there are "partisan disputes" within the Federal Reserve, it is still quite responsible for the responsibilities of the Federal Reserve.
Therefore, even if Powell is replaced by Trump's person, he may not be able to cover the sky with one hand, and even if he covers the sky with one hand, if inflation in the United States continues to rise, it will still go back to the tightening route.
Secondly, we talked a lot about interest rate cuts in 2023 and 2024, defensive interest rate cuts and remedial interest rate cuts, the former can indeed promote investors' risk appetite when the U.S. economy does not have a recession, while the latter cuts interest rates because of economic problems, which will naturally not benefit the risk market.
If interest rates start to cut in September, and the US economy is still quite stable and the unemployment rate is low, then it falls into the former, which is good for risk markets. But it's temporary. After all, the current interest rate of 4.5% needs to be lowered even more.
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