I tried playing the $pump fun sale but didnt get in.
How I'm going to play it:
-I already have some $LAUNCH as beta but was prepositioned on this before
-I am going to closely observe when tokens go live. I expect there to be quite a bit of sell pressure initially.
This is NOT going to be like $HYPE imo where that dip never comes and it just goes up only (maybe I'm off on that). While both are huge income generators, the stories are quite a bit different (thats a post for another day).
Im going to purely watch when tokens go live and probably hope to see some sort of dip. I actually think the pf team is obviously very smart and will pump this token and 4b is reasonable fdv relatively. But I think there's going to be a decent amount of sell pressure from the quick flippers who just want that quick 50% or 2x move initially (in theory). I wont be a buyer right in the first minute or even hour but will watch this closely. Good luck
Analysis on the $PUMP sale:
• A key factor is the initial float: tokens are distributed 48-72 hours post sale, then remain non-tradable for another 48-72 hours, so it could take days until people can sell. I think this delay is widely overlooked. The ICO accounts for the largest share of this initial float at 33% btw
• Plasma deposits reached $1B in a couple minutes
-> there is a lot of capital ready to bid ICOs
• On my feed its mostly InfoFi/HL people who have low expectations - among the people I consider smart and experienced, bidding is consensus (maybe just my echo bubble?)
• Its not a longterm trade, revenue declining and competitors rising. Just here for a quick flip.
I do think most people are not able to judge this objectively and put aside their preferences. Yes it probably goes to zero eventually and everyone hates it but that doesnt matter short term. hated rally..
• Will be interesting to see how long it takes to fill, US/EU banned maybe that makes things more complicated?
• VC money is NOT taking 'free' hl pre-market short,
and its already trading at premium 0.006 there.
yes sure hard to arb this bc of funding and uncertain when u get the tokens but still if big money was more bearish on this they would have tried more I think?
• Good market timing with btc ATH, but ig sol lagging
• If they want to, they can easily pump this: Imagine them hinting at rev share or announcing another big acquisition.
There are supposedly PumpFun team wallets that received $15M+ fresh from CEXs. I would expect its much more but cant confirm these flows nor do we know how much total is and if its getting used to bid but we saw how well that worked with HL bidding the assistance fund with size in the first days
(Pumfun definitely wont do this with that much conviction but couple million buys on launch can go a long way imo)
This feels very similar to plasma where experienced investors were well aware of upside etc yet CT 'plebs' had no idea what this even was in the first place.
Will see you in the orderbooks 🫡
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