Regarding the controversy surrounding Polymarket being controlled by oracles, last month, Musk's xAI and Polymarket officially announced their collaboration. I estimate that it is highly likely that Polymarket will abandon its partnership with oracles like UMA and directly use AI as the basis for determining the results.
The voting results on Polymarket have been manipulated many times, and this time they directly reversed the $2.4 bet, causing all those who bet correctly to lose everything. There were over $200 million in bets regarding whether Zelensky would wear a suit before July. Just four days before the results were announced, on June 26, Zelensky indeed wore a suit during talks with Trump in The Hague, yet the final result was "no." This was because the UMA whales, who are the oracles for Polymarket, were unwilling to accept defeat and manipulated the voting results. Since UMA operates on a POS mechanism, the determination of results is based solely on the choices of the most staked voters, allowing the whales to completely control the outcome. Additionally, due to the POS reduction mechanism, other smaller holders are also forced to go along with the whales' narrative, otherwise, if their voting results do not "align with the facts," they will be fined.
Currently, UMA's market cap is only $130 million, meaning that the entire Polymarket, with bets in the tens or hundreds of billions of dollars, relies solely on this $130 million POS. As long as you can control UMA, it is equivalent to controlling Polymarket, and the whales hold 95% of UMA's tokens.
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