🚨 TRUMP SIGNS HISTORICAL BILL TODAY It will inject $5T and change market forever I spent night alayzing all the data and reports... Here's 5 things you MUST know and how it will change #crypto 🧵👇
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Yesterday the US House passed Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act Retail is already hyped What’s next? The crowd sees only one thing - road to money printing and a $BTC pump But the situation ain’t that simple and has other sides of the coin
The bill itself includes: - $3.3T in new national debt - $5.1T in tax cuts - Removing caps on various spending
We’re running the same old playbook we saw back in 2021: - OBBBA -> Deficit -> Bond issuance -> Fed buys (prints money) -> liquidity pumps Short-term we get bullrun and euphoria Then comes: rate hikes inflation and deficit What could be the final outcome?
GROWING BUDGET DEFICIT Budget deficit = gov spending > revenue To cover the deficit the gov issues more treasuries Gov spends more money -> boosts demand and economy growth Bullish for $BTC in the short-term nothing more
HIGHER INFLATION Since the bill leads directly to a budget deficit in the end we get higher inflation and prices Then the Fed will have to hike rates The only good news - all this happens after the fact before that we get a market spike
Although there were some conservative wins in the budget reconciliation bill (OBBBA), I voted No on final passage because it will significantly increase U.S. budget deficits in the near term, negatively impacting all Americans through sustained inflation and high interest rates.
RISING GOV SPENDING This is actually insane bullish for crypto Simple reason - it speeds up the economy even if short-term More contracts for companies new jobs $BTC will feel amazing
Over the last 10 years, US Federal Government Tax Revenue has increased 60% to over $5 Trillion while Government Spending has increased 97% to over $7 Trillion. The result: a doubling of the US National Debt from $18 trillion to $36 trillion. Video:
LOWER RECESSION RISK Yeah it’s bubbly but the bill really cuts recession risk Money flows into the economy wages go up which drives aggregate demand Bullish for $BTC but again short-term
RECESSION ODDS COLLAPSE TO 19% ON KALSHI Kalshi markets now price just a 19% chance of a US recession in 2025, down nearly 30 points from earlier this year. After a spike in recession bets during April's growth scares, markets have steadily unwound as soft-landing hopes build. This aligns with recent Wall Street revisions: Goldman Sachs cut its recession odds to 15%, and Morgan Stanley to 20%. The market is now clearly betting the Fed will pull off the soft landing.
In the end we get two scenarios: - Short-term (bullish for $BTC) - Long-term (bearish)
SHORT-TERM (1-2 YEARS) - Higher gov spending -> higher aggregate demand - Faster GDP growth - Lower recession risk - Money printing - More jobs new gov contracts and construction - Higher business optimism
On this backdrop we’ll likely see new ATH for $BTC and a global bull run It’ll look like 2021 when they cut rates and started pumping money into markets Now the printer turns on not directly but new money still shows up and flows into the economy
LONG-TERM (2-3 YEARS) - Higher national debt -> higher bond yields - Higher interest rates for businesses and consumers - Rising budget costs to service debt - Long-term inflation threat - Pressure on the economy possible slowdown
And it’s in this window we should expect a deep bear market The Fed likely starts hiking again which becomes the turning point Economy growth slows hard and we’ll see outflows from risk assets like $BTC, $ETH and $SOL
My plan right now stays the same 6 more months then exit I’ll keep watching Trump’s next economic moves and adjust Stay strong guys we’re on the edge of something huge for $BTC
The longest bear market in history for #Altcoins It might feel like there's not even going to be a bull cycle anymore, and I understand why these thoughts are there. But hear me out: M2 supply is surging like never before. FED is about to cut rates. $BTC.D has peaked. Don't let whales manipulate you. The biggest Altseason is coming in the next 3-4 months. Your alts will pump 20-50x. Mark my words.
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