TL，DR

• Macro data shows that U.S. inflation is still above the Fed's target despite signs of easing, the labor market is generally solid, consumer spending is slowing due to high interest rates, and the Fed is keeping interest rates unchanged and cautious about cutting interest rates. At the same time, the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has exacerbated market volatility, and although there is a brief boost from the resumption of economic and trade dialogue between China and the United States, the global economic outlook is under pressure, and future market trends will be affected by expectations of interest rate cuts and changes in the international situation.

• The overall trading volume of the crypto market is active, but the momentum is weakening, and funds tend to be cautious due to geopolitical risks. The market value fell by 4.03% month-on-month, the focus of funds clearly returned to BTC, and ETH and stablecoins performed steadily. Most of the newly listed tokens are concentrated in the DeFi and Layer1 tracks, VC-backed projects are still dominant, and the hot spots are still mainly emotion-driven.

• Despite geopolitical risks and the Fed's hawkish stance weighing on market sentiment and the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum both falling, Bitcoin spot ETFs still had net inflows of $1.13 billion, while Ethereum saw a net outflow of about $80 million due to a larger price decline, reflecting rising short-term risk aversion. At the same time, the stablecoin market continued to expand, driven by stablecoin legislation and Circle's listing, with overall circulation increasing by about $4.17 billion in June.

• On June 22, after Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, Bitcoin rebounded strongly above $108,000, and the continuous net inflows of ETFs reflected institutional bullish sentiment, and the technical side showed that bulls regained control of the rhythm and may challenge the all-time high of $111,980 in the short term. Ethereum and Solana also rebounded simultaneously, and if they break through the key moving average resistance in the future, it is expected to open up further upside, and if they are blocked downward, they may return to the volatile adjustment pattern.

• Circle's successful listing and benefiting from the passage of the GENIUS Act have led to the strengthening of the stablecoin sector, but its valuation is highly dependent on spread income, and its subsequent sustainability remains to be seen. Virtual has exploded in the Base ecosystem with its innovative new mechanism, and early users have made significant profits, but the popularity has receded after the "green lock mechanism" restricts liquidity, and the token price has pulled back by more than 30% from its high.

• The auction of Pumpfun's tokens, valued at up to $4 billion, has been postponed again, coupled with a crisis of trust in the platform and ecological doubts, and the market is still divided on whether it can bring about a structural breakthrough. Coinbase promotes the integration of the Base chain with the main application, and JPMorgan Chase and Co. pilot the "deposit token" JPMD, marking the acceleration of the deployment of on-chain US dollars and compliant stablecoin tracks by traditional institutions and centralized platforms.

1. Macro perspective

1. Inflation trend

CPI data for June 2025 showed that inflation growth slowed to 3.3%, flat month-on-month, and core CPI increased by 3.4% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month. While inflationary pressures have eased, the Fed still believes that the current inflation level is high and far from the 2% target. As economic data accumulates further, the Fed remains cautious, emphasizing the need for more positive data to support rate cut decisions.

2. Labor market

The U.S. labor market maintained a relatively solid performance, with the unemployment rate slightly raised to 4.5%, slightly higher than the previous forecast of 4.4%. Despite the rise in the unemployment rate, it remains relatively low, reflecting the stability of the labor market. Retail sales fell 0.9% month-on-month, the biggest decline in four months, especially amid high interest rates and potential inflationary pressures, where consumer spending was significantly dwindled, especially on durable goods and high-priced goods.

3. Monetary policy dynamics

The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.5% at its June meeting, which is the fourth consecutive time that interest rates have been kept unchanged. While the Fed expects two rate cuts by the end of 2025, it remains highly vigilant about inflation risks. The dot plot shows that there are still expectations for interest rate cuts in the second quarter of 2025, but the disagreement on the future path of monetary policy is gradually increasing, reflecting different views within the Fed on the timing of rate cuts.

4. Trade policy and global economic outlook

The global market in June was affected by the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, and market risk appetite declined significantly. Israel's airstrikes on Iran have caused panic in the market, putting pressure on US stocks in the short term. At the same time, the news of the resumption of economic and trade negotiations between the United States and China in London once boosted market risk sentiment, but the escalation of geopolitical conflicts quickly broke the calm in the market. As the global economic outlook comes under pressure, investors' risk appetite has generally declined.

5. Summary

June macro data shows that the US economy is still facing greater inflationary pressure, although some inflation indicators have slowed, the overall economic growth forecast has been lowered, and the Fed is cautious about cutting interest rates. The geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has had a great impact on market sentiment, and market volatility has intensified in the short term, but with the easing of the international situation and the rise of expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, market sentiment has picked up. It is expected that the Fed may start a rate cut cycle in the coming months, supported by data, but it also needs to be wary of the continued impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the market.

2. Crypto market overview

: currency data analysis

trading volume & daily growth rate

According to CoinGecko data, as of June 25, the average daily trading volume of the crypto market was about $107.7 billion, down 6.6% from the previous cycle. During the period, the trading volume showed a "rise-fall" trend many times, with single-day increases and decreases generally exceeding 10%, of which the trading volume peaked at $167.9 billion on June 13, and there were also many sharp corrections. On the whole, although the market still maintains a certain degree of activity, the momentum of funds has weakened compared with the previous period, and due to uncertain factors such as the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, market funds tended to be cautious in late June, and risk appetite fell.

daily growth

According to CoinGecko data, as of June 25, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies fell to $3.40 trillion, down 4.03% from the previous month. Among them, the market share of BTC rose to 64.8% and the market share of ETH was 9.0%, and the market focus clearly returned to BTC. In terms of overall structure, BTC is still dominant, ETH and stablecoins are relatively stable, while short-term hot sectors rely on emotional speculation and lack sustained support, making it difficult to form long-term incremental momentum.

New Hot Tokens in June

Among the popular tokens newly launched in June, relying on the Binance Alpha listing route, VC background projects are still dominant, and the popular tracks focus on DeFi and Layer1, among which DeFi projects - SPK, RESOLV, HOME, etc. have received widespread attention in the market.

3. On-chain data analysis

3.1 Analysis of BTC and ETH ETF inflows and outflows

BTC ETF inflows of $1.13 billion in June

In June, the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East + the impact of the Fed's "hawkish" stance led to a decline in market risk appetiteBitcoin market sentiment is under pressure, and the price is showing a volatile downward trend. The price of Bitcoin fell from $105,649 to $100,987, a decrease of about 4.41%. Despite the subsequent temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which led to a price correction, the market is still under the influence of war risks. Bitcoin spot ETF funds still maintain a net inflow, reflecting traditional investors' confidence in long-term value, with a cumulative net inflow of about $1.13 billion in June.

an outflow of $80 million from ETH ETFs in June

, the price fell more significantly after the impact of the war. ETH price fell by 12.1% from $2,536 at the beginning of the month to $2,228. Correspondingly, there was a net outflow of Ethereum spot ETF funds, indicating an increase in short-term capital risk aversion, with a cumulative net outflow of about $80 million in June.

3.2 Analysis of stablecoin inflows and outflows

Stablecoin inflows in June were about $100 million – mainly from USDT and USDC

In June, with the positive news stimulated by the stablecoin bill and Circle's US stock listing, the stablecoin market continued its strong growth momentum. Among them, USDT, USDE, and USDC became the main drivers of growth this month, with the total circulation of stablecoins increasing by about $4.17 billion.

4. Price analysis of mainstream currencies

4.1 BTC price change analysis Bitcoin

started the rebound on June 22, which originated from US President Donald TrumpThe news of Trump's announcement of a "comprehensive ceasefire" between Israel and Iran quickly broke through $108,000, showing continued strong bull buying. Despite recent geopolitical risks, the US spot Bitcoin ETF has recorded net inflows for 11 consecutive days, indicating that institutional investor sentiment remains positive.

Bitcoin is currently on track to challenge its all-time high of $111,980. However, in the absence of new catalysts, the price may continue to consolidate in a range.

On June 22, Bitcoin rebounded strongly from $100,000 and broke through major moving averages, indicating strong buying at low levels. The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) has now started to move upwards, and the RSI indicator has also entered a positive range, both hinting at bulls regaining control of the market rhythm.

In the short term, bears may build a line of defense between the descending trendline and $111,980. If the price encounters resistance in this area but manages to find support near the 20-day EMA, it will indicate that the bulls are buying the dip and then making another breakout attempt. Conversely, if the price breaks below the EMA support, the BTC/USDT pair may continue to fluctuate in the $98,200-$111,980 range.

4.2 ETH price change analysis

Ethereum inIt rebounded from $2,111 on June 22 and hit 20 on June 24Daily EMA ($2,473). Currently, the 20-day EMA is flattening and the RSI is also close to the central axis, indicating that the market is temporarily in equilibrium.

If the ETH price breaks above the moving averages, it may open up upside, targeting two resistance levels, $2,738 and $2,879. Conversely, if the price is blocked near the 20-day EMA and falls below $2,323, it indicates that the bears continue to exert pressure on the rally, and the ETH/USDT pair may fall again Key support at $2,111.

4.3 SOL price change analysis

Solana bounced off $126 on June 22 and on June 24Breaking through the key decline level of $140 on a daily basis. The current rally is blocked near the 20-day EMA ($147), but the positive sign is that the bulls have managed to hold the $140 mark.

If the pullback is limited, the market is expected to try to break above the 20-day EMA, and once it holds firm, the SOL/USDT pair may further test the 50 level The daily simple moving average (SMA) is at the $160 level.

If the bears manage to push the price back below $140, it could trigger a further pullback, with support at $123 or even $110.

5. This month's hot events

1. Circle's listing sparked a boom in the concept of stablecoins

Circle Internet Group, the parent company of stablecoin issuer Circle, successfully listed on the NYSE on June 5, and its stock price soared 861% from its opening price of $31 to a high of $298, with a market capitalization of about $76 billion. Subsequently, because "Sister Wood" Cathie Wood's ARK fund quickly reduced its holdings by about 1.5 million shares and cashed out more than $330 million after the IPO, its price fell to $198 as of June 26, with a market value of about $50.6 billion.

Circle's market capitalization has exceeded the actual circulating market value of USDC at its peak, and its revenue mainly comes from USDC reserve interest, generating a total of $1.6 billion in revenue by the end of 2024, of which Coinbase shares more than half, making it Circle's largest source of distribution costs. Although the cooperation between the two parties is crucial to expanding USDC's ecological coverage, the current income structure also exposes the risk of Circle's over-reliance on spread income, which will be squeezed if interest rates fall in the future. However, this IPO coincides with the passage of the GENIUS Act by the U.S. Senate, which strengthens policy support for compliant stablecoins and has also become a catalyst for market hype on the "digital dollar" theme. Overall, Circle's listing has become an important node in the compliance of the stablecoin industry, and the market has given it a premium as a "digital dollar leader", but whether its long-term valuation can stand firm still depends on its ability to break through the dependence on reserve income and build a sustainable diversified income model.

2. The GENIUS Act is passed, and it is subsequently waiting for the president to sign it

In June 2025, the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Stablecoin Act by a landslide (68:30), marking a historic step in the U.S. in the field of cryptocurrency regulation. The bill imposes strict compliance requirements for stablecoin issuers, including 1:1 U.S. dollar or short-term U.S. Treasury reserves, monthly audits, prohibition of interest-bearing stablecoins, and only allowing issuance by bank subsidiaries, federal or specific state-level authorized entities. The bill clearly includes stablecoins in the regulatory scope of the Bank Secrecy Act, establishing their legal status as "digital currencies", which is seen as an important milestone in promoting the mainstreaming of digital assets. Local platforms such as Circle and Coinbase became direct beneficiaries, with Circle's market capitalization soaring by 35% after the bill was passed, while Tether faced multiple compliance challenges such as audit qualifications and reserve structures.

Although the bill is yet to be voted on by the House of Representatives and signed by the president, Trump has publicly endorsed it on social media, calling it the "foundation of the digital dollar." Overall, the passage of the GENIUS Act is not only a strategic move for the United States to compete for digital currency dominance, but also may become a bellwether for the global stablecoin regulatory paradigm, the stablecoin market is expected to usher in explosive growth, and the US financial system is accelerating towards a new era of more digitalization and globalization.

3. Virtual: pumpfun+Bn Alpha new mechanism detonated market heat

This month's Virtual is undoubtedly one of the most watched projects in the market recently. With its innovative new launch mechanism, it quickly attracted a large amount of funds and user participation, becoming the core representative of the current new narrative of the Base ecosystem. The price of VIRTUAL has risen from $0.5 in mid-April to a high of $2.5 in early June, an increase of 400%. The core advantages of Virtual's new launch are:

• Extremely low financing price: Each new project raises funds with a market value of 42,425 virtual (US$224,000), so users can get a very low price to participate in financing, and the potential profit potential after the project opens is huge.

• Token Linear Unlocking: Unlike the MEME on PumpFun, Virtual's new projects are not all unlocked after the opening, but have a transparent token economic model like VC coins and unlock them in batches. In addition, in order to prevent the project party from smashing the market, the raised funds are not directly handed over to the project party, but are all injected into the initial liquidity pool.

• Low risk of launching new projects: If users participate in new projects and do not succeed in raising in the end, the full amount will be returned to users, and Virtual only issues a few new projects a day, so the quality is generally higher than MEME, and the risk of user participation is very low.

• Reduce the probability of Rug for project parties: Virtual sets a 1% handling fee, of which 70% is returned to the project party, which gives the project team an incentive to increase transaction activity rather than short-term cash-out, forming a benign ecological closed loop.

However, with the rise in the popularity of the platform, early users frequently obtain short-term high returns through the strategy of opening and selling, causing new projects to face huge selling pressure and undermining the stability of the overall ecosystem. To this end, Virtual launched a "green lock mechanism" in mid-June, setting a mandatory lock-up period for new users, during which they are not allowed to sell their earned tokens, and points accumulation will be suspended if they violate the rules. Although this mechanism helps discourage early selling and prolong the project life cycle, it also significantly changes the original speculative logic. The user profit cycle has been forced to lengthen, capital efficiency has declined, and market enthusiasm has receded in stages. Virtual's price entered a downward channel in mid-June, falling more than 37% from its high to $1.69.

6. Next month's outlook

1. Pumpfun: The token auction valued at $4 billion has been postponed again

The Pumpfun token auction, originally scheduled for the end of June, has been postponed again and is now expected to take place until mid-July. This is already a number of postponements since the token offering was first proposed late last year. It is reported that Pumpfun plans to raise $1 billion at a valuation (FDV) of $4 billion and plans to airdrop 10% of the tokens for community incentives.

Since its launch, Pumpfun has achieved approximately $700 million in revenue relying on low fees and binding curve mechanisms, making it one of the most profitable projects on the Solana chain, but its ecosystem is facing multiple trust challenges such as the proliferation of bot transactions, stagnant product innovation, and unclear use of funds. In mid-June, the platform and the founder's social account were banned on the X platform, which triggered the spread of false news such as "regulatory intervention" and "founder arrested", further amplifying market doubts. Whether this round of high-valuation financing can bring a structural breakthrough to the Solana ecosystem or become another capital harvest is still controversial in the market.

2. Coinbase promotes the integration of the Base chain, and JPMorgan Chase and Co. pilot "deposit tokens"

Coinbase is currently promoting the deep integration of the Base chain into its main application, and has launched the Coinbase Verified Pools function, which allows KYC users to directly use Coinbase account balances to interact with DApps on Base without the need for cumbersome wallet switching and on-chain transfer processes. While the feature is still in its early stages, this direction is highly consistent with the current trend of multiple plus centralized trading platforms promoting on-chain and off-chain integration. For example, Binance enables exchange users to directly purchase on-chain tokens through the Alpha system; Bybit launches Byreal, which provides DeFi features for trading popular tokens on the chain as well as Solana assets for its exchange users. At present, the one-stop trading experience of centralized exchanges and on-chain transactions has become an important direction for the evolution of the platform.

At the same time, JPMorgan Chase & Co. piloted the launch of the "deposit token" JPMD on the Base chain, as a compliant digital dollar tool for institutions, which is backed by bank deposits and used on a permission-only basis. From an industry perspective, the combination of Coinbase and Base strengthens its compliance chain positioning and entry-level advantages, and if application-level integration is achieved in the future, it may significantly expand the active user base on the chain. JPMorgan's pilot reflects the positive impact of the passage of the GENIUS Stablecoin Act, and traditional institutions have begun to vigorously lay out the on-chain US dollar track, which may inject new variables into the competitive landscape of compliant stablecoins in the context of the current trend of gradual policy easing. Both can be regarded as important signals under the trend of "centralized institutions and on-chain ecology", and it is worth paying attention to their subsequent large-scale implementation rhythm and policy interaction effect.