Five macro and three crypto events most likely to trigger volatility in July The main macro theme in July is basically data hard landing + the Trump administration pushing the market to force a rate cut. On July 3, the June non-farm payroll (NFP) will be released, with the previous two months' non-farm data revised down by 95,000. Powell has publicly complained about data distortion, and if employment weakens further, expectations for a rate cut before the July FOMC will rise sharply. The logic of bad data = good market conditions will dominate again. On July 15, the June CPI will be released, and the market bets that core CPI will fall below 2.8%. If it falls short of expectations, inflation stickiness will combine with declining GDP to create a stagflation narrative. If it declines as expected + employment weakens, a rate cut could happen as early as September. On July 23-24, the ECB will hold a meeting. Currently, the Eurozone's recovery is weak, and according to media reports, a further cut of 25 basis points is expected, which will force the dollar index to retreat, benefiting global liquidity for BTC. On July 29-30, the FOMC meeting will take place. GDP has declined for the past two quarters, so many analysts on Twitter believe that before the data completely collapses, the Federal Reserve may take early action and cut rates. In fact, as long as the stance remains dovish, it essentially means preemptively exhausting rate cut expectations. If the stance turns hawkish, the market is likely to retract quickly. On July 31, the advanced value of Q2 GDP will be released, and the market currently expects 0.5-0.8%, which may confirm a technical recession. The primary crypto events to watch in July are still the unlocking of three major altcoins. On July 2, Ethena $ENA will unlock 0.67% of its supply (worth $25 million). On July 3, $SUI will unlock 1.3% (worth $136 million). On July 12, $APT will unlock 1.76% of its supply (worth $90 million).