刚刚看完了 @VaderResearch 的这篇文章,总结了virtuals对于中大项目缺乏吸引力/目前缺少中大项目(10m 50m)的原因:
团队前期融资选择不足,目前的genesis机制要求团队“放弃” 50%的代币供应量而不筹集资金,限制了运营资金。而熊市中低迷的交易量会减少费用的收入,使团队难以维持运营。
可能这也是为什么mamo会选择通过常规方式发射。而中大型项目的好处就是往往在初始阶段就会提供一个完整的产品,而不是在genesis launch之后缓慢开发,后者会让virgen们体验一个无事可做的空窗期,特别是熊市阶段缺乏优质项目发射的阶段。
vader和评论区提出的两个解决措施:
1. 允许团队选择发射的fdv门槛,比如提供200k、1m、5m等多种发射门槛和对应的fundraising机制;这个机制是很理想的,但是具体的数值设计不是一件容易的事情。
2. 基于团队的build进程,按照milestone分阶段的给予团队份额,而不是按照时间一次性给全部。这点我非常认同,相当于更促使团队build in public,而不是拖延开发进度到解锁跑路。
一直认为genesis是小团队友好、virgens as VC的发射渠道,但是大团队对于整个生态能带来的流动性和情绪也是非常重要的。这两个建议我觉得不会影响小团队的发射体验(if you are real builder)。
How to attract a $1bn project to launch on Genesis?
One of the keys to Genesis’ success is for retail to
Invest in $30m FDV worth projects at $200k FDV
Earning 10x to 150x on a regular basis is crazy
And creates strong virality & word of mouth growth
Most startups fail - applies to Genesis launches too
Most Genesis projects will be sub $500k FDV in 1y
Yet 3-4 winners will make up for all the losses
My biggest regret is not buying $VIRTUAL (used to be called $PATH) at $10M FDV right after having a call with @everythingempty in Dec 2023
You always regret missing out on a 500x more than
Experiencing one position go down 99%
Missing out on $500 > Losing $1
Since the name of the game is to attract
Projects with $1bn FDV potential
Then the success metric should not be
The number of projects that successfully launch
It should be
The number of projects that exceed $50m FDV
During the Dec 24-Jan 25 Virtuals wave
5 projects exceeded $100m FDV; AIXBT, GAME, LUNA, VADER, AIXCB
3 more exceeded $50m FDV; SEKOIA, ACOLYT, TAOCAT
Fast forward today; TIBBIR exceeded $100m FDV
And will likely flip AIXBT eventually as TIBBIR is a very strong cult coin whose holder base is completely out of touch with reality (they're gonna hate me for this but I think this is what makes TIBBIR bullish)
IRIS exceeded $100m FDV at launch day
But we haven’t heard much from the team since then (which frankly disappointed me)
And the price action followed the lack of communication/leadership
MAMO and AXR exceeded $50m FDV
MAMO will likely remain above $50m FDV given extremely low float, legit product/team and close CB ties
And AXR is currently the best performing project out of Genesis so far (surpassing BIOS and IRIS recently)
SOLACE and BIOS hit $40m FDV but were down bad last week
Looking at other projects, most of them are stuck at FDVs below $5m
So what is the missing piece?
Why aren’t $1bn potential teams launching on Virtuals?
Lets look at the evolution of Virtuals' launchpad
Virtuals Launchpad V1 was a pumpdotfun fork for agents
The main BUILDER problems with V1 were
1️⃣ Limited marketing support from Virtuals
2️⃣ Snipers buying at ~$50k FDV (instead of Virgens)
3️⃣ $12k required to buy 50% of your token supply
4️⃣ Lack of funding to cover operational expenses
Fast forward to Genesis 4 months later, most of these problems are solved
1️⃣ Kaito yapping + virality from wildly successful Genesis ROIs
2️⃣ Diamond hand Virgens buying at $200k FDV, snipers buying at >$4m FDV
3️⃣ $200 required to buy 50% (if the raise is successful)
Except for one...
FUNDRAISING
Teams give 50% of their token supply
Leverage the marketing, community and all other valuable ecosystem benefits Virtuals provide
But don’t raise a penny in exchange
Sharing trading fees with builders is GREAT
But volume during a bear is typically low
Still could be sufficient for many teams if combined with token liquidations for treasury building
Yet there are some options to solve the fundraising problem upfront to give more certainty for teams
But this usually comes with TRADEOFFS
One tradeoff is bad actors can abuse this
Remember a dev that defined raised funds as “guaranteed profits”
So ideally Virtuals should monitor teams and distribute funds raised on a milestone-based basis rather than distributing it all in one go
Another big tradeoff is that it will push up the entry FDVs for Virgens
And thus potentially lower ROIs
When the raise is at $1m FDV instead of $200k FDV
$1bn is not a 5000x anymore (it is a 1000x)
But on the other hand, your allocation is higher
So instead of turning $20 into $100k
You are now turning $100 into $100k
Changing the entry FDV might open pandora's box
As projects will try to negotiate the entry FDVs
But despite all the tradeoffs, if providing upfront fundraising
Could attract $1bn potential teams
It is worth taking the risk
Post inspired by a quick convo with @Defi0xJeff in SG
CAP STAYS ON 🧢

7.15K
14
The content on this page is provided by third parties. Unless otherwise stated, OKX TR is not the author of the cited article(s) and does not claim any copyright in the materials. The content is provided for informational purposes only and does not represent the views of OKX TR. It is not intended to be an endorsement of any kind and should not be considered investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell digital assets. To the extent generative AI is utilized to provide summaries or other information, such AI generated content may be inaccurate or inconsistent. Please read the linked article for more details and information. OKX TR is not responsible for content hosted on third party sites. Digital asset holdings, including stablecoins and NFTs, involve a high degree of risk and can fluctuate greatly. You should carefully consider whether trading or holding digital assets is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.


