@Polymarket This project is good, the interaction has been for a long time, and the following is a little personal experience.
Understanding the basics of Polymarket (registration, buying and selling shares, claiming) is just the beginning, and to really stabilize profits and reduce risks, you need the following capabilities to be competent:
In-depth understanding of market making mechanisms and liquidity fluctuations
Master advanced order types: limit orders, pending orders, and arbitrage tools
Keep an eye on market news and social hotspots
The system establishes position management and trading strategies
Security Operations and Compliance Awareness
Let's take a closer look at each of them.
2. Advanced basic knowledge: market making mechanism and liquidity
1. AMM + Protocol Pricing
Polymarket is based on an AMM (Automated Market Maker) mechanism: buying YES will push up the price, and selling will drive it down. Early users can use market orders because they are not sensitive to price impact, but as the trading volume increases, advanced users need to deeply consider price slippage.
2. Liquidity depth and buying and selling volume
When choosing a market, don't just look at the trend, but also look at the pool size (Liquidity Pool) and transaction frequency. Illiquid markets can lead to widening bid-ask spreads, making it more difficult and expensive to enter the market. View key fields such as liquidity, volume, open interest, and more on the page to help gain insight into the depth of the market.
3. Advanced Order Strategy: Market vs Limit
1. Market Order
Advantages: Fast closing
Disadvantages: Large slippage, easy to cause the transaction price to be inconsistent with expectations
2. Limit Order
Advantages: Control the entry price and save costs
Disadvantages: It is not necessary to close the deal, and the status needs to be monitored
[Personal experience]: With a limit order, the price is generally set to the current market price ± 1–2 cents. For example, if the price of YES is 0.45, place a pending order at 0.447–0.448 and wait for the pullback to be filled. After several operations, the cost can be saved by more than 10%.
3. Dynamic order cancellation and pending order adjustment strategy
After placing an order, you can observe the changes of the news high-frequency disk, and cancel the order in time to adjust. For example, Elon Musk and Trump's feud (in recent weeks) fluctuates frequently, and flexible pending orders can wait for the volatile market to fall before placing orders.
4. Hot spot tracking and news arbitrage
Polymarket's market depth relies heavily on hot events, and timely capture can generate trading opportunities quickly.
1. Quickly get official updates from X account
Turn on notifications to track tweet updates with precision.
2. Combine mainstream media and social breaks
For example, the last Musk–Trump conflict caused multiple market volatility, and the news report provided contextual support. My operation idea is: "see that the market price does not fully reflect the new else on X to get the news, and judge the submerged pending order or intervention".
3. Take advantage of the news promoter effect
There are whales on Polymarket, such as FrediGroup, which causes significant price deviations in the election market. If you can avoid rigged markets in time, avoid risk, or wait for the market swing to rebound, you can benefit from market misalignment.
5. Position management and stop-loss strategy
The forecast market is essentially a speculative market, and reasonable capital management determines the possibility of long-term profits.
1. The total position is controlled at 10%
It is recommended to use only 10%-20% of the funds in the master account to participate in a single market, and the rest of the funds are reserved for position regulation and liquidity needs.
2. Set a stop loss
If the price falls by more than 10% due to major negative news after buying an event, it is recommended to close the position in time to stop loss and protect the principal.
3. Buying in batches strategy
It is suitable for public emergencies, such as economic data and election debates. When the direction of the event is confirmed, you can buy in stages: buy 30% first, wait for further reaction, then buy 40%, and finally confirm the trend and then cover the position.
6. Claim and strategy settlement
After the event is over, don't forget to claim in time:
YES correct → can be exchanged for 1 USDC per share
If you hold it overnight and don't make a claim, you can still earn income, but the interest is not high
[Practical experience]: It is best to claim all claims and statistics within 12 hours after the end of the event on the same day, record each profit/loss, and evaluate which strategies are effective.
7. Advanced Functions and API Usage
1. Provide liquidity to earn rewards
Liquidity Reward is supported in some popular markets. By depositing into the LP pool, you can get transaction fee dividends. Great for stable investors.
2. Use the Polymarket API
Those who have a certain technical foundation can use the API to obtain market order books and transaction records in batches to achieve automatic order placement or data analysis. It is suitable for the development of professional forecasting models or arbitrage strategies.
8. Safety compliance precautions
1. Geographical Restrictions and Compliance Alerts
The United States, France, Singapore, Belgium, Poland, and other places are prohibited or have restricted access. Location-sensitive users need to use a VPN, but it's important to be aware of the legal risks.
2. Asset security
Use a hardware wallet or multisig wallet to deposit USDC to avoid theft of the wallet's private key. Regularly update the wallet software to prevent phishing and contract vulnerability attacks.
3. Understand the legal risks
Polymarket's founder, Shayne Coplan, was fined by the CFTC for failing to register for compliance and was investigated by the FBI. The platform's policies may be tightened in the future, and investment needs to be cautious.
9. Dismantling of actual combat cases: Musk-Trump joke board operation demonstration
10. Summary and suggestions
Strategy Category Suggestion Pending Order Skills Limit Pending Orders Save Costs and Pay Attention to Slippage Capital/Position Management The funds in a single order should not exceed 10-20% of the total funds; Coming in and out in batches Information Sources Combine official news, media reports, and community intelligence Stop-loss discipline Significant negative news impact, timely appearance Security measures Use hardware wallets, VPNs, backup private keys Compliance Concept Comply with local policies and avoid regulatory risks Advanced Features Automate operations with liquidity reward and APIs
11. Recommended tools and resources
X Account Push: Follow @Polymarket, @PolymarketIntel, and @PolymarketSport, and open notifications to quickly capture market trends.
News Tracker: Check regularly for coverage of major Polymarket events from Bloomberg, MarketWatch, and Daily Beast.
Community discussions: Reddit and Telegram groups often share real-time intelligence and arbitrage vulnerabilities.
API Development Kit: It is recommended to analyze market fluctuations in combination with Python and develop a self-developed quantitative trigger logic.
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