I've made 150 trades in the past 4 years.
Out of those:
- 94 were good trading decisions
- 56 bad
That's just a 62% win ratio.
Decisions involve ETH/BTC/SOL rotations; if I rotate SOL to ETH and ETH underperforms SOL, it's a bad decision, even if ETH pumps in USD terms.
My best decisions were: selling ETH for SOL and later for HYPE, buying BTC.
And, obviously, farming airdrops (but don't show up in decision score).
Worst? Buying and not selling on time these:
$AR
$ATOM
$STX
$USUAL
$S
$FRIEND
Can't win them all.
@0xbadgers Selling ETH for HYPE was my best decision since I bought ETH itself before DeFi summer.
(excluding airdrops)
HODL is dead.
My biggest mistake this cycle was blindly holding ETH.
Even when my No 1. bullish case for $ETH failed to materialize - super high yields on ETH thanks to Restaking
I love crypto and trading due to its brutal honesty: if you're right = profit, wrong = loss.
But I got complacent with $ETH as narratives shift fast:
- "Ultrasound money" & ETH's ESG edge... Gone.
- Restaking superyields didn't materialize.
- ETH modular vs SOL's monolithic narrative: SOL proved stronger at least short run.
I ignored changing realities, sticking to HODL instead of adapting.
This cycle was more difficult than the last and crypto moves too quickly for passive holds (maybe except BTC).
Profits now come from more active trading, not hoping assets rebound "someday."
$ETH terrible under-performance was a wake up call.
Thankfully rotating to $HYPE saved me.
Still, $ETH has a place in everyone's portfolio and EF is not complacent anymore.
But emerging "Stablecoin & RWAs" L1s with gas abstraction is another growing risk for ETH.
Happy $HYPE ATH for those who celebrate.
These two bad decisions still haunt me at night.
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