In coming days and weeks, we may see how much of the recent bid under gold -- and the ceiling on BTC -- can be explained by anticipation of military action in Iran. My guess: probably substantial for both assets. Gold usually knows. If there’s a war premium there that starts to unwind, watch for BTC’s outperformance over gold and other assets to resume. For now, geopolitics are obviously key.
BTC holders are right to question why it remains sensitive in the short-term to geopolitical and other market-impacting news. The answer is that BTC still has a risk component, especially in its ownership base. As it continues to mature as an asset and supplant gold’s traditional role, this should gradually fade.
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