$CRCL A shallow analysis of the short- and medium-term trends, and a few key points. [Short-term] U.S. bond yields remain high, and the bill is expected to land Neutral-long: high coupon locks in high profits; Policy has catalysed IPO sentiment and valuations have priced in some of the positives. (Interest rates are key) [Medium-term] implementation of the bill, Fed interest rate decline, merchant access expansion. Differentiation: Narrowing spreads vs increasing transaction fees, more competitors; ≥ 30% of the market share is the winner and loser TLDR: Circle's stock is traditionally a "growth stock" or "financial stock", but a "U.S. Treasury coupon leveraged stock": Interest rate upside, float expansion → EPS amplification → P/E natural compression; Interest rates fall or share erosion → EPS contraction → P/E ratio passively rises and stock price pressure increases. Therefore, before looking at P/E, we should first look at the T-Bill trend and USDC market share before we can talk about cheap or expensive valuations. Analyse: Circle's (CRCL)'s core earnings momentum is almost entirely driven by short-term Treasury spreads earned by USDC reserves. Shares are extremely "resilient" due to rising spreads: in the current T-Bill environment of around 5%, the static price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is still as high as ~170x; If Treasury yields fall back to 3%, P/E will passively rise to 290 times ≈ under the assumption of no growth in liquidity and non-interest income. Therefore, to value Circle, it is necessary to incorporate the interest rate path, USDC circulation scale, and partner profit sharing structure into the scenario analysis, rather than looking at traditional P/E in isolation. Scenario 1: FOMC rate cut / bullish curve 🔻 Spreads EPS revised downwards by → valuations inflated → shares under pressure Scenario 2: USDC Float ≥ $80 B 🔺 Scale Neutralization spreads slip and P/E falls Scenario 3: Renegotiation ⚖️ of cooperation and profit sharing If Circle retains > 40%, the EPS will be elastically amplified Moat & Competitive Analysis: 1) Offshore stablecoins Tether USDT(Circulating $155 B) Economies of scale, profits of 13 billion $ / 24 years. Disadvantages: However, due to the pressure of compliance audit, it may be necessary to re-register or hand over reserve information. 2) FinTech stablecoins PayPal USD (PYUSD), Stripe-USDC Direct Deposit. Comes with payment scenarios and a huge user base. Disadvantages: Federal/state licenses are required, and 100% Treasury bonds may not be allowed 3) Bank tokenised deposits Visa VTAP、BBVA Pilot Deposit insurance, interest payable Deficiencies: Insufficient technology/chain interoperability 4) Decentralized solutions DAI, FRAX, etc Trustlessness and flexible mortgage Deficiencies: Tighter regulatory exemptions, transparency requirements 🗡️ Competitive Differentiation: 1) Regulatory pre-emption: voluntary disclosure of weekly reserve audits, subject to both the SEC and the public market after the IPO 2) Transparent Reserve Structure: The Circle Reserve Fund in partnership with BlackRock is 100% invested in U.S. bonds & reverse repos, and the net value and duration are disclosed. 3) Global payment API ecosystem: Interfaces with Visa, Stripe, Shopify, Remote, Bridge, etc., have covered e-commerce, freelance payment, and card clearing 4) Cross-chain composability: CCTP + smart contracts allow USDC to be migrated lossless across multiple chains, and BlackRock BUIDL can be redeemed instantly. #CRCL #利率敏感 #Stablecoin