[Crypto Narrative Scoring Model: Discovering the Next Outbreak Opportunity]
1️⃣ Investment logic in the crypto market
The keys to making big money in the crypto market are:
🌟 Discover new narratives early
🌟 Predict the direction of capital flow
🌟 Exit before the peak of the bubble.
The Ordinals protocol on Bitcoin, for example, has experienced four waves of speculation, but some narratives (such as Runes) have cooled down after only a brief burst.
Whether the narrative can be sustained depends on
🌟 Whether there is real technological innovation
🌟 Whether there are new catalysts
🌟 Whether the community is continuously built.
2️⃣ The core elements of the narrative scoring model
A scoring formula to help you judge the potential of your narrative:
Narrative Score = [(1.5× Innovation × Simplicity) + (1.5× Community × Simplicity) + (Liquidity ×Tokenomics) + Incentives] × Market Environment
🌟 Innovation (Technological Breakthrough)
Innovations from 0 to 1, such as Ordinals (issuing tokens on Bitcoin) and AI agents, are the most valuable.
But new things can be overlooked at first (like the early days of Ordinals) and need to be kept open to trying.
🌟 Simplicity (ability to spread)
The simpler and more "meme-like" the narrative spreads, the faster it spreads, for example, Memecoin (e.g., PEPE) can explain it in less than 5 seconds, while complex concepts such as zero-knowledge proofs spread slowly.
🌟 Community (Fan Base)
The community is the "fuel" of the narrative, for example, Hyperliquid has become popular due to user cohesion, and Memecoin's market capitalization of $66 billion is all due to community hype.
How can you tell? Join the Community Watch to see if there's a real sense of belonging (as opposed to paid promotion).
🌟 Liquidity (ease of trading)
Illiquid projects (such as Runes) are difficult to exit because of the lack of a trading pool like Uniswap, and large sales will smash the market.
Good liquidity requires an exchange launch, a large trading volume, and a high lock-up volume.
🌟 Tokenomics (Distribution Mechanism)
Poor tokenomics can lead to sell-offs, such as a large number of unlocks and VC control; Good examples are HYPE (High Circulation, Destruction Mechanism).
🌟 Incentives (money-making effect)
For example, new token issuance methods (fair launch, airdrop) attract funds, while Eigenlayer has a narrative stall due to the failure of the incentive mechanism.
🌟 Market Environment (Big Quote)
In a bull market, the ordinary narrative can also rise (the market environment multiplier is high), and in the bear market, no matter how good the narrative is, it is difficult to break out (the multiplier is low).
3️⃣ How to score with a formula?
For example:
Runes had a good score of 69 for innovation (9) and community (7), but liquidity (3) and market conditions (0.5 for bears) lagged behind.
Memecoin has a higher rating (116 points) for high simplicity (10 points), community (9 points), and liquidity (9 points).
@virtuals_io's ACP Innovation (9 points) is good, how should the others be scored, what do you think?
4️⃣ Practical advice
🌟 Discover narratives early: Use tools like Kaito to focus on new innovations and catalysts.
🌟 Strict scoring: Don't be blindly optimistic, for example, if the token unlocking plan is poor, points will be deducted.
🌟 Timely exit: Sell before the incentive expires (e.g., an airdrop lands).
🌟 Adapt to the trend: hoard money in the bear market, invest in the bull market, and participate in community practice learning.
5️⃣ Summary
This model is not a perfect formula, but a reminder that you can systematically judge the potential of an encrypted narrative from the dimensions of technology, communication, community, transaction, economic model, and environment, so as to avoid blindly following the trend as a "pick-up man".
This article is an English article with the core idea from ignasdefi, add a little bit of your own understanding, if you want to see the ignasdefi article, you can read it here:
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